The war on Iran is already upending the Middle East. Look to the Gulf states to see how | Nesrine Malik
#Iran #Gulf states #Middle East #war #geopolitics #alliances #Nesrine Malik
📌 Key Takeaways
- The Gulf states are experiencing significant geopolitical shifts due to the conflict with Iran.
- Regional alliances and economic stability in the Middle East are being disrupted.
- The article highlights the strategic importance of Gulf states in the ongoing tensions.
- Nesrine Malik suggests that these changes are already reshaping the regional order.
📖 Full Retelling
🏷️ Themes
Geopolitical Conflict, Regional Instability
📚 Related People & Topics
Nesrine Malik
Sudanese-born journalist and author
Nesrine Malik is a Sudanese-born journalist and author of We Need New Stories: Challenging the Toxic Myths Behind Our Age of Discontent (W&N, 2019). Based in London, Malik is a columnist for The Guardian and served as a panellist on the BBC's weekly news discussion programme Dateline London.
Iran
Country in West Asia
# Iran **Iran**, officially the **Islamic Republic of Iran** and historically known as **Persia**, is a sovereign country situated in West Asia. It is a major regional power, ranking as the 17th-largest country in the world by both land area and population. Combining a rich historical legacy with a...
Middle East
Transcontinental geopolitical region
The Middle East is a geopolitical region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, the Levant, and Turkey. The term came into widespread usage by Western European nations in the early 20th century as a replacement of the term Near East (both were in contrast to the Far East). The term ...
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Deep Analysis
Why It Matters
This analysis matters because it examines how escalating tensions with Iran are fundamentally reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics, particularly affecting Gulf states that must navigate complex alliances. It impacts regional stability, global energy markets, and international security arrangements as traditional power dynamics shift. The article highlights how these changes affect millions through economic disruption, security concerns, and potential conflict escalation.
Context & Background
- Iran has been a regional power with significant influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen through proxy groups for decades
- Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and UAE, have historically viewed Iran as both a geopolitical rival and religious competitor (Sunni vs Shia divide)
- The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) temporarily reduced tensions but collapsed after US withdrawal in 2018 under President Trump
- Recent years have seen Gulf states pursuing more independent foreign policies, with some normalizing relations with Israel through Abraham Accords
- Iran's nuclear program has advanced significantly since 2018, with enrichment levels approaching weapons-grade capability
What Happens Next
Expect increased diplomatic maneuvering as Gulf states attempt to balance relations with Iran, Western allies, and regional partners. Military posturing and proxy conflicts may intensify in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Key developments to watch include potential renewed nuclear negotiations, responses to any Iranian nuclear advancements, and whether Gulf states will join broader security arrangements with Israel against Iran.
Frequently Asked Questions
Gulf states are geographically proximate to Iran and economically dependent on oil exports that transit through strategic waterways Iran can threaten. They also host significant US military bases, making them potential targets in any conflict while needing to maintain complex relationships with both Washington and Tehran.
Current tensions are more dangerous because Iran's nuclear capabilities have advanced significantly, Gulf states are pursuing more independent foreign policies rather than aligning uniformly with US positions, and regional normalization with Israel has created new alliance structures that could draw more actors into potential conflict.
The primary risks involve potential disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20-30% of global oil passes. Energy price volatility could trigger broader economic instability, particularly affecting energy-importing nations already dealing with inflation and supply chain issues.
Gulf states are pursuing dual-track approaches: maintaining security cooperation with Western allies while engaging in diplomatic outreach to Iran to de-escalate tensions. Some are diversifying alliances, with Saudi Arabia and UAE developing relations with China and Russia as alternative security partners.
Israel views Iran as an existential threat and has conducted covert operations against Iranian nuclear and military targets. Gulf states now share some security concerns with Israel, leading to unprecedented cooperation, though they remain cautious about being drawn into open conflict.