How war stopped working

Journalist Janan Ganesh published an analysis on February 25, 2026, examining the growing ineffectiveness of military force in modern conflicts, drawing evidence from failed campaigns in Ukraine, Iraq, and Afghanistan where major powers have struggled to achieve decisive victories. The article opens with observations about war museums displaying defeated military hardware, suggesting a pattern of consistent military failure across different eras and conflicts. When asked when a major state last unambiguously won a land war, the author points to Desert Storm in 1991 as a possible example, though noting it was largely settled from the air, and suggests that truly decisive victories have become increasingly rare in modern warfare. This trend of military frustration affects both democratic and autocratic aggressors, wars close to home and those on distant continents, and conflicts against both sovereign states and irregular forces. While acknowledging some successes of air power alone, such as the ousting of Slobodan Milošević and the beating back of ISIS, the author points out their limitations, as seen in the aftermath of Libya where the west lost control after toppling Gaddafi without ground forces. The article explores several explanations for this military ineffectiveness, including the wider proliferation of means of violence that allow smaller entities to defend themselves, the shift from conventional battles to 'wars amongst the people,' and the inhibiting effect of nuclear escalation fears. As for consequences, the author speculates that war might become less common as states recognize the costs outweigh benefits, but powerful states might still attempt force in their spheres of influence. Democracies particularly risk becoming under-defended if public support for military action wanes due to decades of poor outcomes, potentially leading to civilian estrangement from military institutions. In what was once a moralizing slogan, 'there are no winners in war' now has the ring of a descriptive sentence in the 21st century.