Monday.com stock price target lowered to $180 by Guggenheim on margin concerns

Guggenheim has lowered its price target on monday.com Ltd. (NASDAQ: MNDY) to $180 from $250 and kept a Buy rating following the company’s recent earnings call and release of calendar-year 2026 guidance, after which management withdrew previously announced fiscal 2027 targets and cited margin pressure. The change comes as monday.com shares have plunged 76.2% over the past year and were trading near $77.63, with immediate market reaction including double-digit pre-market and intra-day drops tied to investor concern over weaker-than-expected margins and lower free cash flow guidance. Analysts and investors seized on the guidance miss for operating margins and free cash flow as the primary reason for the reassessment of value. The company remains listed on Nasdaq and the developments affect U.S. and global investors following its earnings disclosure for the period. Guggenheim’s reduction reflects specific worries about profitability: monday.com guided to calendar-year revenue growth of 18–19%, which largely met expectations, but margins and free cash flow fell short of consensus. The company set 2026 free cash flow margin guidance at 19–20%, versus a consensus near 27%, and management pointed to Israeli shekel appreciation, lower interest income and cash taxes as headwinds to operating margins. The immediate market response included a sell-off in pre-market trading and further declines during the earnings call, driving the stock sharply lower and into what some indicators flagged as oversold territory. Despite the downside, several operational metrics remained solid. Fourth-quarter performance showed New Annual Recurring Revenue growth in the low teens year-over-year and seat growth of 14% compared with 15% year-to-date through Q3 2026; Net Dollar Retention slipped only slightly from 111% to 110%. Gross profit margins remain high at 89.2%, and analysts expect EPS of about $4.44 for fiscal 2026. The company also has more cash than debt on its balance sheet and a healthy current ratio of 2.5. Valuation metrics cited by Guggenheim suggest monday.com trades at roughly 9 times estimated 2026 free cash flow and in the mid-teens for 2027 estimates, with a PEG ratio near 0.31 indicating a low P/E relative to expected near-term earnings growth. The market reaction has prompted a wave of analyst adjustments: Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $140 while keeping a Buy, Baird downgraded to Neutral with a $90 target, Loop Capital moved to Hold at $80, Wolfe Research trimmed its target to $95 but kept an Outperform, and Needham lowered its target to $125 while retaining Buy. Those revisions underscore investor concerns about monday.com’s near-term profit trajectory even as the company continues to develop AI-enabled offerings such as Vibe coding, Sidekick, agents and workflow orchestration that management says should support future growth.