South Sudan at risk of ‘return to full-scale war’, UN warns

South Sudan faces a heightened risk of returning to full-scale war unless urgent action is taken to address escalating violence and widespread abuses, according to a UN report released on Friday at the Human Rights Council session in Geneva. The report by the UN's Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan found civilians enduring severe atrocities including systematic sexual violence, killings, arbitrary detention, and forced displacement amid deepening humanitarian crisis. The warning comes as renewed fighting since December has displaced 280,000 people and raised fears of a return to the civil war that killed 400,000 between 2013 and 2018, particularly following the arrest and removal of First Vice President Riek Machar and the deployment of Ugandan forces that have 'materially strengthened' government capabilities. The report specifically highlights how the arrest and prosecution of Machar on charges including murder, treason and crimes against humanity have undermined 'the core power-sharing guarantees' of the 2018 peace agreement, triggering 'political uncertainty and armed clashes on a scale not witnessed' for a decade. The commission documented a 'dangerous shift in tactics' including air strikes on civilian-populated areas, with joint bombardments by Ugandan and South Sudanese armies predominantly affecting Nuer communities in opposition-affiliated areas. The report also found that conflict-related sexual violence remains a 'defining and persistent feature' of the crisis, with survivor testimonies showing 'widespread and systematic patterns of rape' perpetrated by all armed forces and groups, often functioning as a 'strategic instrument of conflict deployed to terrorise civilian populations.' As the humanitarian situation deteriorates, the UN estimates that nearly 10 million people need life-saving assistance across the country, while displacement has risen by nearly 40 percent to 3.2 million people. The commission called for urgent coordinated national, regional and international re-engagement, including diplomatic pressure, sanctions and enforcement of the UN arms embargo until concrete improvements in human rights and accountability are achieved. It specifically urged the government to halt violations by its forces, release arbitrarily detained individuals, and establish long-delayed transitional justice mechanisms to investigate and prosecute war crimes committed since 2013, warning that without such measures, South Sudan risks complete institutional collapse and the destruction of its fragile transition.