Trump said Iran will 'soon' have missiles able to hit the U.S. A 2025 intel report said it will take 10 years.

During his State of the Union address on Tuesday, February 25, 2026, President Donald Trump claimed that Iran is working to build missiles that could 'soon' strike the United States, marking the first time a U.S. official has portrayed Iran as poised to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile, a statement that contrasts with U.S. intelligence reports suggesting Iran would need a decade to achieve such capability. 'They've already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they're working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,' Trump declared, offering what appeared to be another rationale for possible military action against Iran. The Trump administration's stance represents a significant shift from previous assessments by U.S. intelligence agencies. A Defense Intelligence Agency report released in 2025 stated that Iran 'has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.' When asked about the timeline, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged Iran's efforts but declined to specify how close they were to developing ICBM capability, noting only that 'they are certainly trying to achieve' intercontinental ballistic missiles. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defended Trump's comments, stating the president was 'absolutely right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran.' Iran has vehemently denied having an ICBM program, with Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei dismissing Trump's speech as full of 'big lies.' Iran currently possesses medium-range ballistic missiles capable of traveling 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers, allowing it to strike targets across the Middle East and parts of Europe. Experts remain divided on the timeline, with Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association calling Trump's comments 'an exaggeration,' while Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted that Iran has redoubled its efforts to expand its missile program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also warned that Iran is developing long-range missiles that could place U.S. cities in danger. The discrepancy between Trump's assessment and intelligence reports has raised questions about whether the administration has determined new intelligence indicating accelerated progress or if the president is deliberately overstating the threat to build support for a more confrontational policy toward Iran.