U.S. Ability to Determine What Comes Next in Iran Might Be Limited

During the Trump administration, American officials have been assessing potential scenarios for Iran's future leadership following a possible major strike, questioning how much influence the US might have in determining what comes next in Iranian politics. Some American officials believe that if a significant strike were to occur, leaders outside the traditional religious chain of succession in Iran might take a more moderate approach toward the United States and Israel. These officials speculate that such leaders could potentially be willing to compromise on Iran's nuclear program. However, this scenario presents a complex situation where real power might not lie with these new political figures but instead remain with the remaining Revolutionary Guards leaders. The Revolutionary Guards could be more likely to adopt a compliant stance focused primarily on maintaining their economic interests and control of the country rather than pursuing aggressive policies against the United States or Israel. This potential shift suggests that the Trump administration's ability to fundamentally change Iran's government direction might be limited, as the Revolutionary Guards' priorities appear more aligned with self-preservation than ideological confrontation.