Hungary elections: what is at stake and who is likely to win?

Explainer Hungary elections: what is at stake and who is likely to win? Viktor Orbán, an icon for the global far right, could face defeat despite an electoral system weighted in his favour Hungarians go to the polls on 12 April in Europe’s most consequential election of the year, with Viktor Orbán , the country’s illiberal prime minister and global far-right icon, facing possible defeat, after 16 years in power, by a former loyalist, Péter Magyar. How does the election work and who is likely to win? Since 2010, Orbán has made hundreds of changes to electoral rules, including nearly halving the number of parliamentary seats to 199 and creating 106 unevenly sized single-member constituencies (the remaining MPs are elected proportionally using party lists). The result is a Fidesz-friendly system, with far fewer votes needed to win in pro-Fidesz districts. Orbàn has also made it easier for the mostly pro-Fidesz Hungarians living in nearby countries to vote, and handed policy sweeteners to mostly loyal voter groups such as pensioners. This means Tisza, which has an 8-12 percentage point lead among decided voters in most polls (although pro-government pollsters put the ruling party ahead), may need a six-point win over Fidesz to secure a majority. Polling averages put the opposition party on 50% of the national vote and Fidesz on 39%. However, up to 25% of respondents are undecided, and experts warn that national polling does not reflect the complexities of Hungary’s gerrymandered constituencies. Fidesz is more popular among retirement-age voters, polls suggest, leading Tisza by 50% to 20% in some polls, while Tisza is strongly ahead among under-40s and urban voters. Turnout could reach record heights of more than 80%, pollsters say. What could happen? Broadly, observers see three possible outcomes: a Magyar majority that Orbàn accepts; a Magyar majority that Orbàn does not accept; or an Orbàn majority. All would come with consequences. For the reasons outlined above, Hun...