Iran’s military options limited as it tries to hit back at US-Israeli attack

Analysis Iran’s military options limited as it tries to hit back at US-Israeli attack Dan Sabbagh Defence and security editor Retaliatory strikes have so far been high in volume but mostly not very effective and are likely to become less so US-Israel war on Iran – latest updates In the grim calculus of war, Iran now has to hope it gets lucky. The first hours of the joint US-Israeli assault were catastrophic for the Iranian regime: the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, killed alongside, it is believed, the minister of defence, the head of the armed forces and the head of the powerful Revolutionary Guards. Iran knew its security apparatus had been compromised during the 12-day war of June 2025 when Israel killed a string of senior military commanders. During January’s street protests, Khamenei was moved away to a secure location for his own safety, yet on Saturday he felt safe enough to hold a security meeting in his compound in Tehran. The CIA had picked up on the fact of the meeting in advance and passed its intelligence to the Israelis. A handful of Israeli fighter jets flew for about two hours and struck the compound with around 30 long-range missiles. Though Khamenei had planned for his own death, naming a list of potential successors, and that of many of the country’s military and political leaders, requiring them to nominate people who could take over as many as four levels down, the reality can only be that Iran’s military response will be less coherent and coordinated amid such a destabilising and demoralising loss of command and control. Waves of US and Israeli attacks are meanwhile coming at a high pace. Initial reporting suggested the US carried out 900 strikes in the first 12 hours of the operation, while Israel claimed to have bombed 1,200 times in the first 24 hours. “The US and Israel are prioritising breaking Iran’s offensive capabilities and leadership,” said Matthew Savill, of the Royal United Services Institute thinktank. “The question is whether the I...