Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
#Trump #Iran #uprising #Iraq 1991 #US foreign policy #protests #Middle East
📌 Key Takeaways
- President Trump has publicly encouraged protests in Iran, drawing parallels to past US foreign policy.
- The 1991 Iraq uprising, which the US initially supported but did not fully back, serves as a cautionary historical lesson.
- There is significant skepticism about the reliability and consistency of US support for such movements.
- The situation highlights the complex and often tragic consequences of external powers influencing internal conflicts.
📖 Full Retelling
🏷️ Themes
Foreign Policy, Historical Precedent
📚 Related People & Topics
Jeremy Bowen
Welsh journalist and TV presenter (born 1960)
Jeremy Francis John Bowen (born 6 February 1960) is a British journalist and television presenter. Bowen was the BBC's Middle East correspondent based in Jerusalem between 1995 and 2000 and the BBC Middle East editor from 2005 to 2022, before being appointed the International Editor of BBC News in A...
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Deep Analysis
Why It Matters
This analysis matters because it examines the potential consequences of U.S. foreign policy interventions in volatile regions, specifically comparing Trump's call for an Iranian uprising to the failed 1991 Shia uprising in Iraq. It affects Iranian citizens who might face violent government crackdowns, U.S.-Iran relations already strained by the nuclear deal withdrawal, and regional stability in the Middle East. The comparison serves as a cautionary tale about encouraging popular revolts without providing meaningful support, which could lead to devastating human costs and further geopolitical complications.
Context & Background
- In 1991, following the Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush encouraged Iraqis to rise up against Saddam Hussein, leading to widespread Shia and Kurdish rebellions.
- The U.S. did not intervene militarily to support the rebels, allowing Saddam's forces to brutally suppress the uprisings, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and mass graves.
- Iran has experienced periodic anti-government protests in recent years, most notably in 2009 (Green Movement) and 2017-2018, often met with severe crackdowns by security forces.
- U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions, creating economic hardship that fuels public discontent in Iran.
- The Iranian government frequently blames foreign powers, particularly the U.S. and Israel, for instigating domestic unrest to undermine the Islamic Republic.
What Happens Next
If protests intensify in Iran, we can expect increased internet restrictions and violent suppression by Revolutionary Guards. The U.S. may impose additional sanctions targeting Iranian leadership while avoiding direct military involvement. Regional proxies (like Hezbollah) might be mobilized, and Iran could accelerate nuclear program advancements in response to perceived external threats. International diplomatic efforts through the EU or UN are unlikely to gain traction given current U.S.-Iran hostility.
Frequently Asked Questions
The 1991 uprisings were Shia and Kurdish rebellions against Saddam Hussein that the U.S. encouraged but didn't support militarily, leading to brutal suppression. This matters today because it illustrates the dangers of foreign powers calling for revolts without committing to protect protesters, a pattern that could repeat in Iran with devastating consequences.
Trump is likely capitalizing on existing economic protests in Iran to pressure the regime, following his 'maximum pressure' campaign after withdrawing from the nuclear deal. This aligns with his administration's goal of regime change in Iran, though it risks repeating historical mistakes of encouraging unrest without clear support plans.
Iran will likely intensify internet blackouts, deploy Revolutionary Guards, and arrest protest leaders while blaming the U.S. and Israel for instigation. The regime has consistently shown willingness to use lethal force against demonstrators, as seen in 2009 and 2019 protests, to maintain control.
Instability in Iran could disrupt oil markets and affect Iranian-backed forces in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Regional rivals like Saudi Arabia might exploit Iranian weakness, while allies like Russia and China would likely support Tehran's stability to protect their strategic interests.
Direct conflict remains unlikely as neither side wants all-out war, but miscalculations could escalate existing proxy conflicts. The U.S. would probably limit involvement to sanctions and cyber operations, while Iran might retaliate through regional proxies or asymmetric attacks rather than direct confrontation.