Middle East conflict offers economic lifeline to Russia’s flagging war machine
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<p>With much of the world’s oil supplies out of action, Russia could step in to meet demand in China and India</p><p>A prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening war in the Middle East could offer an economic lifeline to Russia’s war machine at a moment when it was beginning to show signs of strain.</p><p>The sharp weakening and possible collapse of the regime in Iran would deprive the Kremlin of one of its closest regional partners. But that setback could be
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Middle East conflict offers economic lifeline to Russia’s flagging war machine With much of the world’s oil supplies out of action, Russia could step in to meet demand in China and India A prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening war in the Middle East could offer an economic lifeline to Russia’s war machine at a moment when it was beginning to show signs of strain. The sharp weakening and possible collapse of the regime in Iran would deprive the Kremlin of one of its closest regional partners. But that setback could be outweighed by an economic windfall if disruption pushes buyers toward Russian energy, alongside a possible slowdown in western arms supplies to Ukraine . “When a good fifth of global oil supply and roughly a quarter of seaborne trade is effectively locked up, that’s a boon for Russia,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and leading expert on Russia’s energy sector. Brent crude rose more than 7% on Tuesday to above $80 a barrel, adding to Monday’s 7.2% jump, after a halt to shipping in the strait of Hormuz followed by Iranian missile and drone strikes on regional infrastructure. The surge pushed prices to their highest level since July 2024 and they are predicted to rise further. India and China – among the largest buyers of Middle Eastern crude – would be hardest hit by any extended disruption and could be forced to increase purchases from Moscow. While Beijing has long diversified its oil imports across the Middle East, Africa and Russia, any sustained disruption to Gulf supplies – particularly from Iran – could speed up a deeper tilt towards Russian barrels, Vakulenko said. India faces a more delicate balancing act. Until recently, Russia was its largest supplier of crude, a relationship that deepened after western sanctions reshaped global energy flows. But under a trade deal struck with Donald Trump last month, New Delhi began replacing some Russian cargoes with oil from the Gulf, cutting imports fro...
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