Oil prices plunge 15% to below $100, stocks surge and dollar slumps after Trump announces US-Iran ceasefire – business live
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<p>Gas prices slide 20%, government bond yields fall sharply as rate hike expectations recede</p><p><strong>Despite the sharp drop in crude oil prices today, Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, does not expect oil prices to go back to pre-war levels anytime soon, and warned it could take months for energy supply to return to normal levels.</strong></p><p>Here are his thoughts.</p><p>We would view the Iran 10 point proposal pos
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13m ago 05.33 EDT Economist: Transit fees would mean 'de facto nationalisation' of strait Neil Shearing , chief economist at Capital Economics, said Iran’s plan to charge transit fees for ships to pass through the strait of Hormuz would only have a modest impact on global energy priced but would amount to a “de facto nationalisation of the shipping route”. There are significant hurdles to overcome before the ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel and Iran can translate into a lasting end to the war. But if it were to hold, it would move outcomes closer to those envisaged in our “baseline” forecast. In that scenario, oil prices decline but still end the year at $80 a barrel, headline inflation rises to around 3-4% year-on-year in the US and Europe and, while GDP growth slows in most major economies, the overall economic damage outside of the region remains limited. Talks between the US and Iran, on the basis of Tehran’s 10-point framework, which Washington has apparently accepted as a starting point, are expected to begin in Islamabad on Friday. The plan contains several provisions that are likely to prove difficult for both sides. These include acceptance of Iran’s continued uranium enrichment, a demand that US/western sanctions on the country be lifted, and the withdrawal of US forces from all bases in the region. Shearing said: It is difficult to see these points being agreed to in full. Some compromise will be required and, without it, there’s a good chance the agreement will fall apart and the conflict resumes. Turning to markets, Shearing said: For markets, the most critical issue remains the status of the strait of Hormuz. The framework appears to allow the full passage of oil tankers through the strait, but the terms under which this would occur remain unclear. Some reports suggest the introduction of transit fees of around $1m–2m per tanker. Given that tankers typically carry 1m–2m barrels of crude, such fees would add roughly $1 per barrel to the cost o...
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