Polls, preferences, potential defections: can Victoria’s Liberal party ward off the rising threat of One Nation?

Analysis Polls, preferences, potential defections: can Victoria’s Liberal party ward off the rising threat of One Nation? Benita Kolovos Opposition leader Jess Wilson is under pressure to reveal her position on a deal with Pauline Hanson’s party as the state election approaches Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast While internal divisions have long been the Victorian Liberal party’s main obstacle to winning government , a new threat is emerging on its right flank: One Nation. Just four years ago, One Nation received just 8,077 lower house first-preference votes out of more than 3.6m cast in Victoria – equivalent to 0.22% of the total – and won a single seat in the upper house. But the first batch of polls conducted this year suggests a much stronger showing at this November’s state election, with One Nation commanding anywhere from 11% of first preference votes to as high as 26.5% ( Roy Morgan ). It’s a marked jump from late 2025. The final publicly reported poll of that year, conducted by Redbridge/Accent Research , showed that 4% of people were going to vote for a “minor right-wing party” (their latest poll, due soon, will separately categorise One Nation). There are significant caveats attached to the numbers, including sample sizes, margins of error and methodological limitations. It’s also unclear whether they are an accurate demographic and geographic breakdown of the state. (For one, it’s hard to imagine anyone under 25 answering a number they don’t know and agreeing to a survey. And if they do, it’s unclear whether they would represent most people their age). One Nation spent the summer campaigning against the Labor government’s bushfire response . In January, it confirmed it will field a candidate in each lower and upper house seat in its “biggest election yet” in Victoria. The minor party’s focus on the state, combined with the polling surge, has some of the most senior Liberals on edge. Former premier Jeff Kennett earlier this mont...