‘Seismic change’: how election wins for nationalists in Celtic nations could reshape UK

‘Seismic change’: how election wins for nationalists in Celtic nations could reshape UK With polls suggesting Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Sinn Féin could be in power after May vote, constitutional challenges may lie ahead I n four weeks, the shape of British politics is likely to change dramatically. For the first time, nationalists who aspire to break up the UK are expected to be in control of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland simultaneously. “The change will be seismic,” said Angus Robertson, a senior minister in the Scottish government. Opinion polls consistently suggest that after the elections on 7 May, England will be flanked by countries run by restless centre-left nationalist parties – Plaid Cymru in Cardiff , the Scottish National party in Edinburgh and, in Belfast, Sinn Féin, which shares power with the Democratic Unionists. That raises the prospect of significant constitutional disputes that would thrust Keir Starmer’s Labour government in London – or, if he is ousted after May’s elections, that of his successor as prime minister – into very difficult waters. Sources say all three parties are in talks about combining forces to challenge the UK government on areas such as spending, taxation, welfare and rejoining the EU. Meanwhile, Starmer will probably be wrestling with more English local authorities run by Reform UK, standard bearer for its form of British nationalism. The disputes could erupt into open conflict if the SNP wins an overall majority in May and uses that to demand a second independence referendum, potentially as soon as 2028 – a prospect some polls suggest is realistic, but which is still seen as unlikely due to Holyrood’s proportional voting system. “It’s really important to appreciate that if we are in a situation with three nationalist first ministers out of four nations of the UK, the status quo is not sustainable,” Robertson told the Guardian. “There is going to have to be a massive step change in how the UK deals with the other nation...