The Guardian view on Labour’s migration gamble: Denmark is no template | Editorial

The Guardian view on Labour’s migration gamble: Denmark is no template Editorial Extending settlement waits risks deepening labour shortages while misreading public concern about migration’s economic and demographic realities T he home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is expected this week to press ahead with plans to make it harder for migrants to gain settled status, extending the wait from five to 10 years. She will not change tack despite Labour’s crushing byelection defeat to the Greens. This is a mistake. Ms Mahmood argues that Denmark’s Social Democrats curbed inflows to protect the welfare state and won at the ballot box. A general election in Denmark later this month will test whether that policy remains popular . Her recent visit to Copenhagen kept the spotlight on asylum , the most politically charged part of the UK system. Yet asylum flows are a small fraction of overall migration and largely disconnected from the labour shortages that undergird Britain’s economic debate. Public concern about migration is real – shaped by pressures on housing, services and wages. But pollsters say that this is disproportionately driven by Reform UK supporters, who worry substantially more about immigration than voters backing far-right parties in Europe. That suggests that the politics of migration is more complex than headlines imply. The home secretary may propose cutting migration to show that she is listening. But in ageing countries where migrant workers are concentrated in key sectors such as health and construction, the fallout is very real. In Britain, visas for overseas nurses have fallen by 93%, from 26,100 in 2022 to 1,777 in 2025. Care worker visas are down 97% over the same period. Social care providers are struggling to recruit; construction firms warn of delays ; universities compete globally for talent. Clearly, imposing sudden restrictions would have consequences beyond the raw numbers. The tension between tighter controls and reliance on migrant labour is ev...