Landon Derentz: Markets Expect Quick Off-Ramp From Iran War
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RFE/RL spoke with Landon Derentz, former White House energy director during the first Trump administration and now vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council, about how global energy markets are interpreting the war with Iran -- and what may come next.
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Iran Landon Derentz: Markets Expect Quick Off-Ramp From Iran War By Alex Raufoglu March 26, 2026 13:27 CET Landon Derentz: Markets Expect Quick Off-Ramp From Iran War Share Share Print As the war with Iran continues, access to the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that sees about one-fifth of the world's gas and oil transit through it, has become an urgent -- and uncertain -- objective. US President Donald Trump called on NATO allies and major Asian partners, including China, to help secure the vital maritime corridor, but the response to his request was mixed. Meanwhile, energy markets are reacting sharply: Brent crude surged past $115 per barrel last week before retreating slightly, and attacks on key infrastructure in Iran and Qatar have raised fears of a broader, longer-lasting supply shock. Against this backdrop, Alex Raufoglu, RFE/RL's senior correspondent in Washington, D.C., spoke with Landon Derentz, former White House energy director during the first Trump administration and now vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council, about how markets are interpreting the crisis -- and what may come next. RFE/RL: As markets respond to escalating tensions, with Brent crude now trading above $115 per barrel [at time of publication, the price was $106], are current price levels primarily reflecting a temporary geopolitical risk premium, or do they suggest that investors are beginning to price in a more prolonged and structural supply shock? Landon Derentz: I think they are looking at a premium right now. There is a distance between the physical market and the gap of losing 10 to 13 million barrels a day, and where the market is actually pricing the consequences of the current shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. So for me, there is still a bit of a transient nature to some of the price markers around the world, in particular Brent crude, because having a shortfall -- a market disruption of the scale we are seeing right now -- for any longer duration is ...
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