The unintended winner of an Iranian oil shock

The unintended winner of an Iranian oil shock by Tim Zadorozhnyy March 2, 2026 8:52 PM 5 min read Illustrative image: The Russian-chartered vessel on March 5, 2023, in Ceuta, Spain. (Antonio Sempere/Europa Press via Getty Images) Russia by Tim Zadorozhnyy As markets opened on March 2, Russian officials were quick to frame the escalating Middle East crisis as an economic opportunity for the Kremlin. Within hours of the first U.S. and Israeli strikes, Russian Envoy Kirill Dmitriev quickly posted on X about crude potentially hitting "$100+" per barrel. Brent crude futures on the London ICE exchange initially had risen 13.04%, peaking at $82.37 per barrel — the highest level in over a year. Prices later eased to $79.38. The spike followed Iran's March 1 announcement that it would suspend trade through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the strikes. Roughly 20% of global oil and up to 30% of liquefied natural gas flows transit the narrow waterway. Become a member – go ad‑free Against that backdrop, economists say the beneficiary is clear. " Russia is very likely to benefit from the conflict," Oleksandr Talavera, professor of financial economics at the University of Birmingham, said. read also Oil windfall Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption in the Gulf could drive prices higher. Reuters reported that Middle Eastern leaders have cautioned Washington that prices could climb above $100 per barrel if the war expands. Become a member – go ad‑free A blockade would not only restrict sanctioned Iranian crude but also legal exports from Saudi Arabia , the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq. In that scenario, Russia could emerge as one of the few major suppliers able to quickly fill part of the gap — especially through discounted shipments to Asia. "Oil revenues, as well as the foreign exchange they generate, will be welcomed by the Kremlin," Dan Marks, research fellow at Royal United Services Institute, said. Talavera explained that higher prices would strengthen Russi...