Airlines Are Already Preparing for an Oil Crisis
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With the Iran war doubling oil prices, experts say the airline industry’s belt-tightening is an economic canary in the coal mine for the rest of the world.
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Aarian Marshall Gear Mar 22, 2026 5:37 PM Airlines Are Already Preparing for an Oil Crisis With the Iran war doubling oil prices, experts say the airline industry’s belt-tightening is an economic canary in the coal mine for the rest of the world. United Airlines' CEO published a letter on Friday outlining his company's plan to weather the coming period of economic turmoil as jet fuel prices continue to climb. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Save this story Save this story The war with Iran and ensuing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane, has spiked oil prices and sent governments scrabbling for their reserves. How high will prices go, and how bad could it get? On Friday night, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby published a memo to his employees that demonstrates his very fuel-dependent business is prepping for a very long fallout. “Our plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn’t get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027,” he wrote . Jet fuel accounts for between a quarter and a third of airlines’ operating costs. Prices have doubled from $70 a barrel since the war started four weeks ago, threatening to seriously cut into airlines’ profitability. Kirby said that his airline has a strategy: United will cut some 5 percent of its planned flight schedule during the second and third quarters of this year, with trims coming especially in “off peak periods” like redeyes and less popular travel days: Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays. “Honestly, I think there's a good chance it won't be that bad,” Kirby wrote in the memo, “but … there isn't much downside for us to prepare for that outcome.” United’s moves are significant for not only the travel industry but the wider global economy, analysts say. If it all plays out the way Kirby predicts, “this would be incredibly unwelcome news to everyone who is not in the oil refining business,” says Jason Miller, a professor at supply chain management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of B...
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