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Estonia says Russia planning military buildup to shift power in Europe
| USA | economy

Estonia says Russia planning military buildup to shift power in Europe

#Estonia #Russia #NATO #Baltic States #Military buildup #Intelligence report #European security

📌 Key Takeaways

  • Estonia warns that Russia plans to double its military forces along the Baltic and Finnish borders.
  • The buildup is part of a long-term strategy to challenge NATO's influence in Eastern Europe.
  • Russia is undergoing structural reforms to restore a massive, Soviet-style military presence.
  • Estonian officials advocate for NATO members to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP.

📖 Full Retelling

Estonian intelligence officials and government representatives issued a formal warning in Tallinn this week, reporting that Russia is significantly expanding its military presence near the Baltic states' borders to prepare for a long-term confrontation with the West. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service released its annual report on February 13, 2024, detailing a massive structural reform of the Russian Armed Forces aimed at shifting the balance of power in Europe and restoring a Soviet-style military posture. This strategic buildup is being driven by the Kremlin's ambition to dominate the Baltic region and deter NATO from providing further support to Eastern European allies. The report highlights that Moscow intends to double the number of its personnel stationed along its borders with the Baltic states and Finland. This reorganization includes the establishment of new army corps and the deployment of advanced weaponry that had previously been redirected to the frontlines in Ukraine. Despite the heavy losses sustained during the ongoing conflict, Estonian officials emphasized that Russia retains the industrial capacity and political will to replenish its stockpiles and modernize its forces at a rate that poses a direct threat to regional stability over the next decade. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin noted that while an immediate conventional attack is unlikely given Russia's current focus on Ukraine, the window for NATO to bolster its defenses is narrowing. They argued that the Russian leadership currently views the Baltic states as the most vulnerable flank of the alliance. Consequently, Estonia is calling for increased defense spending across all NATO member states, suggesting a minimum threshold of 3% of GDP to counter the growing threat of a revitalized Russian military infrastructure. Beyond troop numbers, the intelligence assessment warns of an increase in hybrid warfare activities, including GPS jamming and cyber operations, which have already disrupted civilian aviation in the Baltic Sea region. The Estonian government believes these actions are intended to test NATO's resolve and unity. By expanding its military footprint, the Kremlin aims to create a permanent atmosphere of intimidation, forcing European nations into concessions regarding their security architecture and foreign policy alignment.

🏷️ Themes

International Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics

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📄 Original Source Content
Estonia says Russia planning military buildup to shift power in Europe Russia has no intention of launching a military attack on any NATO state this year or next, but is racing to rebuild its forces as Europe steps up its rearmament, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said in its annual report on Tuesday. The NATO member, which borders Russia, has been one of Moscow’s sharpest critics and a strong supporter of Ukraine. Kaupo Rosin, head of the service, stated that nations must invest in defence and internal security so that in the future Russia would conclude it has no chance against NATO countries. The Russian leadership is reportedly concerned about European rearmament, viewing it as a development that might enable Europe to conduct independent military action against Russia in two to three years. According to Rosin, Russia’s current goal is to delay and hinder this progress. Ammunition production is expanding so rapidly that Russia will be able to stockpile supplies for future wars while continuing to fight in Ukraine, the intelligence service said. Any potential Russian attack on Estonia would involve drones on land, in the air, and at sea, occurring simultaneously across the country's entire territory. Regarding relations with the United States, Estonian intelligence noted that the Kremlin continues to regard the U.S. as its principal global adversary, while feigning readiness to cooperate in order to secure the removal of sanctions. This strategy stems from an ambition to exploit the U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations and pursue a settlement that would formalise Ukraine’s defeat. Despite this perceived thaw, Russia’s aims remain unchanged: it seeks to marginalise the United States and NATO and to reshape Europe’s security architecture according to Moscow’s vision. The report also highlighted the role of China, which sees Russia as a useful ally to marginalise the West and as a vital source of energy if a conflict with Taiwan leads to...

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