Точка Синхронізації

The United States and Russia have entered a period of unprecedented nuclear risk as the final remaining safeguards governing their long-range nuclear arsenals expired this week, marking the first time in over half a century that the world's two largest nuclear powers are not bound by a bilateral arms control treaty. Security experts and analysts, including Margaret Brennan, warned that the lapse of these historical agreements removes critical caps on strategic warheads and delivery systems at a time of heightened global instability. The expiration stems from a years-long breakdown in diplomatic relations and the suspension of inspections, leaving both nations without a formal framework to prevent a renewed and unregulated arms race. Since the height of the Cold War in the early 1970s, a series of treaties—including SALT, START, and eventually the New START agreement—provided a foundation for global stability by ensuring transparency and limiting the number of deployed nuclear weapons. The current vacuum is particularly alarming because it eliminates the legal requirements for data exchanges and on-site inspections that previously allowed each side to verify the other's capabilities. Without these mechanisms, military planners are forced to rely on intelligence estimates, which often lean toward "worst-case scenario" planning, potentially leading to a massive increase in defense spending and weapon production. The timing of this expiration coincides with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and increasing tensions in the Pacific, creating what experts describe as a "perfect storm" for nuclear proliferation. For decades, the U.S. and Russia maintained a rough parity that discouraged a first-strike capability; however, the lack of limits now opens the door for both nations to expand their stockpiles or modernize their delivery systems with advanced technologies like hypersonic missiles. This shift also complicates international efforts to restrain other nuclear-armed states, as the traditional leaders in arms control no longer provide a model for oversight. Looking ahead, the international community faces a landscape where nuclear deterrence depends solely on individual national restraint rather than codified international law. Diplomacy remains stalled, and the prospect of a new, comprehensive replacement treaty appears remote given the current geopolitical climate. Margaret Brennan emphasized that this era of uncertainty could redefine global security for the next generation, as the guardrails that once prevented a direct nuclear confrontation between the superpowers have effectively vanished.