Experts analyze what the Iran war could mean for U.S. gasoline prices
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It's impossible to predict what will happen to gasoline prices in the near to medium term. But in the short term, experts widely expect them to rise.
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By — Louis Jacobson, PolitiFact Louis Jacobson, PolitiFact Leave your feedback Share Copy URL Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Experts analyze what the Iran war could mean for U.S. gasoline prices Economy Mar 4, 2026 6:51 PM EST When President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address in late February, he pointed to his efforts to reduce the price of a key consumer product: gasoline. Although Trump exaggerated how low U.S. gasoline prices are, he had a point about falling pump prices. At the time of his speech, gasoline prices had dropped to a nationwide average of $2.92 a gallon, down from $3.11 at his January 2025 inauguration. Days later, the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran — and Trump's year-plus progress on lowering gasoline prices was essentially wiped away. WATCH: How the war in Iran is impacting global energy markets It's impossible to predict what will happen to gasoline prices in the near to medium term. But in the short term, experts widely expect them to rise. "Significant disruptions in the supply chain and damage to refining and processing facilities could cause elevated prices to last longer than the duration of operations in Iran," said Hugh Daigle, a University of Texas-Austin petroleum and geosystems engineering professor. Trump acknowledged that reality in remarks at a March 3 bilateral meeting, saying the U.S. might face "a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than even before." How much have oil and gasoline prices increased? Shortly after the war's Feb. 28 start, prices for both crude oil — the material that is refined into gasoline — and gasoline have spiked. The price of Brent crude, the benchmark for how much oil costs internationally, cost $70.77 per barrel when Trump gave his State of the Union address on Feb. 24. By early March 4, it had risen to $81.73, a 15% increase. The March 4 pri...
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