Final Actor Winner Predictions: The Circuit’s Last Stop Could Bring Upset Potential for Michael B. Jordan, Benicio Del Toro and More

Film industry analyst Clayton Davis released his final predictions for the 2026 Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) on February 26, highlighting potential upsets for Michael B. Jordan, Benicio Del Toro, and other actors as the awards season approaches its penultimate stop before Oscar voting closes. The ceremony, voted on by over 160,000 SAG-AFTRA members, is widely regarded as one of the most reliable bellwethers for Academy Awards success, particularly in performance categories where overlap with the Academy's acting branch is strongest. Davis suggests that this year's competition features a mix of blockbuster films and prestige dramas, with the top category for best cast ensemble likely centering on Ryan Coogler's vampire drama 'Sinners' versus Paul Thomas Anderson's political epic 'One Battle After Another.' The article delves into various acting categories, noting that Timothée Chalamet is back in contention for 'Marty Supreme' after winning the SAG prize last year for 'A Complete Unknown,' though no actor has ever won two consecutive film awards in the same category. In the lead actor race, Chalamet faces competition from Jordan's dual role as twin brothers in 'Sinners,' Leonardo DiCaprio as a revolutionary father in 'One Battle After Another,' and Ethan Hawke as musician Lorenz Hart in 'Blue Moon.' Davis predicts a late momentum shift toward 'Sinners' and Jordan, potentially affecting other categories like cast ensemble and supporting actress for Wunmi Mosaku. In supporting categories, the article notes that every ceremony has had different winners so far, creating uncertainty. Sean Penn's surprise BAFTA victory for 'One Battle After Another' and Benicio Del Toro's Critics Choice wins suggest a competitive field, while Paul Mescal's nomination for 'Hamnet' without an Oscar nod could cause an upset if he wins. For television, HBO Max's 'The Pitt' and Apple TV's 'The Studio' are expected to dominate ensemble races, with Noah Wyle and Seth Rogen taking leading actor honors. The piece also notes the potential for Catherine O'Hara to become the first posthumous female TV acting winner following her passing, and discusses competitive races in limited series categories.