Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Will Amy Madigan Become the Second Oldest Winner, or Will Wunmi Mosaku or Teyana Taylor Make History?

Mar 12, 2026 4:45pm PT Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Will Amy Madigan Become the Second Oldest Winner, or Will Wunmi Mosaku or Teyana Taylor Make History? By Clayton Davis Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars , Emmys , Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday. Explore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages Oscars | Emmys | Grammys | Tonys Oscars Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): This category is keeping awards pundits up at night. Amy Madigan delivers a haunting, zeitgeist-level performance in Zach Cregger’s blockbuster horror film “Weapons.” She enters the Oscars as the critics’ darling, having swept most of the season’s precursors, including the Critics Choice and SAG Awards. But she faces two notable hurdles: missing out on a BAFTA nomination in a six-nominee field — a historically significant predictor of Oscar success — and being her film’s sole nominee. In the past 25 years, only five actors have won as their film’s only contender. The last supporting actress to do so was Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008). Those wins typically carried strong external narratives — overdue recognition, biopic subject matter, or unconventional category placement. Madigan, making her second Oscar bid 40 years after her first for “Twice in a Lifetime,” has none of these advantages. The competition comes in the form of two outstanding women from the two best picture frontrunners. Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe-winning turn in “One Battle After Another” pos...