Final Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor — Why Delroy Lindo Could Be This Year’s Marcia Gay Harden

Mar 12, 2026 1:55pm PT Final Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor — Why Delroy Lindo Could Be This Year’s Marcia Gay Harden By Clayton Davis Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars , Emmys , Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday. Explore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages Oscars | Emmys | Grammys | Tonys Oscars Best Supporting Actor Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): One category. Five worthy men. Open possibilities. In an awards season overflowing with frontrunners and over-analyzed narratives, it’s not best picture or lead actor that has stirred the pot the most. Instead, the two supporting actor races have emerged as the season’s most unpredictable. Stellan Skarsgård once looked unbeatable after winning the Golden Globe for the Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value.” But a major red flag appeared when he was left out of the SAG nominations. That, coupled with Jacob Elordi’s CCA win for “Frankenstein” and Benicio Del Toro doubling Skarsgård’s number of critics’ wins with his turn in “One Battle After Another,” fractured the race. Then came Delroy Lindo, the 73-year-old veteran who landed a surprise Oscar bid for his scene-stealing turn in Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners,” despite being snubbed by every major precursor. Only three actors in modern history — Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) and Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) — have won an Oscar without a SAG nomination. Harden is the only one who, like Lindo, missed every major precursor. And then ...