From war to weather: A 'super El Niño' event poses fresh risks to global food costs
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An unusually powerful El Niño weather event could take shape later this year, exacerbating global food security fears.
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An unusually powerful El Niño later this year could exacerbate food security fears as disruption caused by the Iran war strains supply for crucial fertilizer products. Climate scientists warn it appears increasingly likely that a planet-warming El Niño will take shape over the coming months, with U.S. meteorologists estimating a one-in-three chance of a "strong" weather event forming in October to December. European climate models indicate an even higher probability of a very strong or "super El Niño," although the so-called spring barrier means that these forecasts can be inaccurate. El Niño — or "the little boy" in Spanish — is widely recognized as the warming of the sea surface temperature, which occurs naturally every few years. Such an event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. A super El Niño, which doesn't have an official scientific category, is understood to refer to an exceptionally strong phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation , when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst, food and farming at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said 2026 was shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks have become a costly reality. "Food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by climate extremes disrupting production in major growing regions, and by a food system still hooked on fossil fuels and therefore exposed to spikes in gas, fertiliser, transport and packaging costs," Jaccarini told CNBC by email. "That is why the prospect of a strong El Niño matters," he continued. "It can turbocharge weather risks in a climate already destabilised by human emissions, compounding inflation driven by high fossil fuel prices." 2026 might produce a super El Niño weather pattern. In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen. Paul Don...
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