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Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy rating on Cleveland-Cliffs stock despite earnings miss
| USA | economy

Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy rating on Cleveland-Cliffs stock despite earnings miss

#Cleveland-Cliffs #Goldman Sachs #earnings miss #EBITDA #POSCO #deleveraging #stock rating #debt-to-EBITDA

📌 Key Takeaways

  • Goldman Sachs reaffirmed Buy and a $15 target for Cleveland-Cliffs after its Q4 earnings miss.
  • Q4 adjusted EBITDA was a $21M loss and revenue was $4.3B, below consensus due to lower volumes and pricing.
  • Company expects Q4 2025 to be a profitability trough with a potentially improved macro backdrop in 2026.
  • High leverage and downgraded credit metrics raise deleveraging concerns despite mixed analyst reactions.
  • Strategic developments include a POSCO memorandum and the appointment of Edilson Camara to the board.

📖 Full Retelling

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating and $15.00 price target on Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) following the steelmaker’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results, saying in a research note after the earnings release that the shares trade close to intrinsic value and still warrant conviction despite the miss. The reaffirmation comes as Cleveland-Cliffs reported lower revenue and negative adjusted EBITDA, prompting investor scrutiny, while the firm flagged a constructive outlook for 2026 as the rationale for maintaining its positive stance. The guidance and commentary arrived amid heightened market attention to the company’s leverage and strategic moves, including a memorandum of understanding with South Korea’s POSCO. Analysts and credit agencies have reacted with mixed ratings and downgrades since the results were disclosed. Cleveland-Cliffs posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $21 million versus the FactSet consensus for a $17 million loss and revenue of $4.3 billion, underperforming the $4.6 billion consensus. Management attributed the shortfall to a lower shipment volume of 3.8 million net tons and a pricing decline of $39 per ton; the company also showed a negative EBITDA of $236 million over the trailing twelve months and a gross profit margin of -4.94%. Those metrics underscore a period of weakened profitability that contrasts with the stock’s recent price momentum, leaving investors to weigh operational softness against valuation and recovery prospects. Goldman Sachs and analyst Mike Harris highlighted several focal points for investors going forward: realized pricing trends for 2026, the pace and options for deleveraging if free cash flow proves slower to rebound, and potential value creation from the POSCO partnership. The firm noted Cleveland-Cliffs has outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 10% year-to-date and by 7% in the five trading days preceding the earnings release, yet it warned the shares could lag the sector near-term because of the earnings miss. The company’s balance-sheet strain is evident in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.47 and a dramatic rise in leverage after the Stelco acquisition, with debt-to-EBITDA jumping to 20.5x in fiscal 2024 from 2.3x the prior year. Market reactions have been mixed: several analysts have trimmed estimates—five have reduced earnings forecasts with fiscal 2025 EPS projected at -$1.96—while Seaport Global Securities and KeyBanc lowered ratings citing valuation and estimate pressure. Conversely, Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight following the POSCO MOU, which some see as strategically transformative. Credit rating agency S&P Global downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to B+ from BB- on high indebtedness. Separately, the company named Edilson Camara to its board, adding governance experience as it navigates operational recovery and balance-sheet repair.

🏷️ Themes

Earnings, Leverage, Analyst Coverage, Strategic Partnerships

📚 Related People & Topics

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

American investment bank

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( SAKS) is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company. Founded in 1869, Goldman Sachs is headquartered in Lower Manhattan in New York City, with regional headquarters in many international financial centers.

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POSCO

POSCO

South Korean steel-making company

POSCO (formerly Pohang Iron and Steel Company) is a South Korean steel manufacturer headquartered in Pohang, South Korea. It had an output of 42,000,000 metric tons (41,000,000 long tons; 46,000,000 short tons) of crude steel in 2015, making it the world's Seventh-largest steelmaker by this measure....

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Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

Accounting measure of a company's profitability

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, commonly known as EBITDA ( EE-bit-dah, EB-it-dah), is a measure of a company's profitability of the operating business only, thus before any effects of indebtedness, state-mandated payments, and costs required to maintain its asset bas...

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📄 Original Source Content
Goldman Sachs has reiterated its Buy rating and $15.00 price target on Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) despite the company reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The stock is currently trading at $14.73, slightly below Goldman’s target but showing strong momentum with a 54% price return over the past six months. Based on fair value assessments, the stock appears to be trading close to its intrinsic value. Cleveland-Cliffs posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $21 million versus the FactSet consensus estimate of a $17 million loss. Revenue came in at $4.3 billion, below the $4.6 billion consensus, due to both lower volume of 3.8 million net tons and decreased pricing, which fell by $39 per ton. Recent data reveals the company has been struggling with profitability, reporting a negative EBITDA of $236 million for the last twelve months and gross profit margins of -4.94%. The company expects the fourth quarter of 2025 to represent a trough in quarterly profitability, with an improved macroeconomic backdrop anticipated for 2026. Goldman Sachs noted that Cleveland-Cliffs shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by 10% year-to-date and by 7% in the five days leading up to the earnings release. Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Harris indicated that investors will likely focus on several key topics, including realized pricing expectations for 2026, options for additional deleveraging if free cash flow rebounds more slowly than expected, and potential value creation from the POSCO partnership. The focus on deleveraging is particularly relevant as Cleveland-Cliffs is operating with a significant debt burden, showing a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.47 as of the most recent quarter. Given the fourth-quarter earnings miss, Goldman Sachs believes Cleveland-Cliffs shares could underperform the sector in the near term, despite the company’s constructive outlook for 2026. Analysis shows five analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, with an EPS forecast a...

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