Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy rating on Cleveland-Cliffs stock despite earnings miss
#Cleveland-Cliffs #Goldman Sachs #earnings miss #EBITDA #POSCO #deleveraging #stock rating #debt-to-EBITDA
📌 Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs reaffirmed Buy and a $15 target for Cleveland-Cliffs after its Q4 earnings miss.
- Q4 adjusted EBITDA was a $21M loss and revenue was $4.3B, below consensus due to lower volumes and pricing.
- Company expects Q4 2025 to be a profitability trough with a potentially improved macro backdrop in 2026.
- High leverage and downgraded credit metrics raise deleveraging concerns despite mixed analyst reactions.
- Strategic developments include a POSCO memorandum and the appointment of Edilson Camara to the board.
📖 Full Retelling
🏷️ Themes
Earnings, Leverage, Analyst Coverage, Strategic Partnerships
📚 Related People & Topics
Goldman Sachs
American investment bank
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( SAKS) is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company. Founded in 1869, Goldman Sachs is headquartered in Lower Manhattan in New York City, with regional headquarters in many international financial centers.
POSCO
South Korean steel-making company
POSCO (formerly Pohang Iron and Steel Company) is a South Korean steel manufacturer headquartered in Pohang, South Korea. It had an output of 42,000,000 metric tons (41,000,000 long tons; 46,000,000 short tons) of crude steel in 2015, making it the world's Seventh-largest steelmaker by this measure....
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Accounting measure of a company's profitability
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, commonly known as EBITDA ( EE-bit-dah, EB-it-dah), is a measure of a company's profitability of the operating business only, thus before any effects of indebtedness, state-mandated payments, and costs required to maintain its asset bas...
📄 Original Source Content
Goldman Sachs has reiterated its Buy rating and $15.00 price target on Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) despite the company reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The stock is currently trading at $14.73, slightly below Goldman’s target but showing strong momentum with a 54% price return over the past six months. Based on fair value assessments, the stock appears to be trading close to its intrinsic value. Cleveland-Cliffs posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $21 million versus the FactSet consensus estimate of a $17 million loss. Revenue came in at $4.3 billion, below the $4.6 billion consensus, due to both lower volume of 3.8 million net tons and decreased pricing, which fell by $39 per ton. Recent data reveals the company has been struggling with profitability, reporting a negative EBITDA of $236 million for the last twelve months and gross profit margins of -4.94%. The company expects the fourth quarter of 2025 to represent a trough in quarterly profitability, with an improved macroeconomic backdrop anticipated for 2026. Goldman Sachs noted that Cleveland-Cliffs shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by 10% year-to-date and by 7% in the five days leading up to the earnings release. Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Harris indicated that investors will likely focus on several key topics, including realized pricing expectations for 2026, options for additional deleveraging if free cash flow rebounds more slowly than expected, and potential value creation from the POSCO partnership. The focus on deleveraging is particularly relevant as Cleveland-Cliffs is operating with a significant debt burden, showing a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.47 as of the most recent quarter. Given the fourth-quarter earnings miss, Goldman Sachs believes Cleveland-Cliffs shares could underperform the sector in the near term, despite the company’s constructive outlook for 2026. Analysis shows five analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, with an EPS forecast a...