How Russia could benefit from the US-Israeli war on Iran
#Russia-Iran relations #US Middle East policy #Energy markets #Ukraine war #Putin's foreign policy #NATO intervention #Geopolitical advantage #Military resource depletion
📌 Key Takeaways
- US-Israeli attacks on Iran validate Russia's anti-Western geopolitical strategy
- Conflict benefits Russia economically through higher energy prices
- Prolonged Middle East conflict depletes US resources for Ukraine
- Russia maintains neutrality due to Israel pact and Trump's diplomatic stance
- Iran chaos helps Putin maintain domestic image as national protector
📖 Full Retelling
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are observing with concern yet strategic interest the US-Israeli military attacks on Iran and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 3, 2026, as this Middle Eastern conflict potentially benefits Russia's ongoing war effort in Ukraine by validating Moscow's geopolitical strategy and depleting Western resources. The attack on Iran, while causing discomfort in Moscow, is viewed by Putin as confirmation of the Kremlin's long-held view of the US-led West as a rogue and irrational actor. This perspective stems heavily from events in 2011 Libya, where a NATO-led intervention resulted in the ouster and brutal murder of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. That experience significantly influenced Putin's threat perceptions and was a factor in his decision to return to the presidency. The aftermath in Libya, which brought neither democracy nor prosperity but instead civil war and fragmentation, reinforced Putin's determination to prevent similar outcomes for Russia, ultimately leading to Russia's interventions in Ukraine's Maidan Revolution and subsequent military actions. Despite the strategic advantages presented by the US-Iran conflict, Russia maintains a position of neutrality due to several factors. The Kremlin has an informal non-attack pact with Israel, which has refused to supply crucial weapons systems to Ukraine or join anti-Russian sanctions. Additionally, Russia's relationship with Iran, while strengthened by drone technology transfers that provided crucial support during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is not strong enough for direct military intervention. Domestically, Putin stands to gain from the scenes of destruction in Iran, as the war reinforces his image as a protector of Russia against Western aggression while also depleting US arsenals that would otherwise be available to Ukraine.
🏷️ Themes
Geopolitical Strategy, Resource Allocation, National Security, International Relations
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Entity Intersection Graph
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Original Source
OPINION OPINION, Opinion | Russia-Ukraine war How Russia could benefit from the US-Israeli war on Iran A protracted conflict in the Middle East could help Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Listen to this article | 7 mins By Leonid Ragozin Leonid Ragozin is a freelance journalist based in Riga. Published On 3 Mar 2026 3 Mar 2026 Click here to share on social media Share Save Add Al Jazeera on Google The US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayotallah Ali Khamenei have caused a measure of discomfort in Moscow. Some hawkish Russian commentators claim that Russia could be attacked in the same manner despite its vast nuclear arsenal. They see reckless statements by major Western officials about the possibility of war with Russia in the near future as proof of the intent. Although the attack on Iran is a cause of concern in Moscow, it is also seen as a vindication of its own geopolitical strategy, including the aggression against Ukraine. It is a confirmation of the Kremlin’s long-held view of the US-led West as a rogue and irrational actor. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US war on Iran likely echoes the events of 2011 in Libya, which heavily influenced his own threat perceptions. That year, a NATO-led military intervention resulted in the ouster of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. The NATO attack on Libya, which Putin’s protege and then-President Dmitry Medvedev had facilitated by approving Russia’s abstention during a United Nations Security Council vote, was one of the factors that pushed him to decide to return to the presidency. In October 2011, a month after Putin accepted the nomination for another presidential run, Gaddafi was brutally murdered by rebels, and the video of his demise went viral on the Internet. The end of his regime, celebrated by Western leaders at the time, brought neither democracy nor prosperity to Libya. Instead it plunged the country into a civil war and fragmentation. Advertisement For Putin, it was a clea...
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