Iran after Khamenei: What's next and what it means for the country?

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint military strike by Israel and the United States at his office within his residence in Tehran on February 28, 2026, setting in motion a formal succession process with significant implications for the country's political stability, sanctions outlook, and already strained economy. Khamenei, who was 86 at the time of his death, had assumed power following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, inheriting a revolutionary state still consolidating itself after the Iran-Iraq war. Not initially seen as the obvious successor, Khamenei's elevation was enabled by a constitutional revision that changed the requirements for the Leader to only need expertise in Islamic jurisprudence with political and managerial ability. Over his decades-long rule, Khamenei consolidated authority over Iran's key institutions, maintaining control over the military, judiciary, state broadcasting, and major strategic decisions while presidents changed through elections. He championed a 'resistance economy' to promote self-sufficiency amid Western sanctions, remained wary of engagement with the West, and cracked down on critics who argued his security-first approach stifled reform. His leadership faced repeated tests, including mass protests over alleged election fraud in 2009, demonstrations over women's rights in 2022, and nationwide unrest in late 2025 when economic grievances spiraled with some protesters openly demanding the Islamic Republic's overthrow. Following Khamenei's death, Iranians expressed both celebration and hope for transformation, with social media platforms showing celebrations in the streets. However, analysts caution that jubilation does not equal immediate change. The Council on Foreign Relations noted that 'taking out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not the same as regime change,' emphasizing that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps represents the true power structure. The death of Khamenei ushers in only the second leadership transition since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with potential trajectories including regime continuity, military takeover, or regime collapse. Analysts suggest none of these near-term scenarios envision positive transformation in the immediate aftermath, with even a continuity outcome leaving uncertainty as a new leader would need to 'learn on the job' while managing intensifying economic strains.