Is U.S. tariff revenue starting to decline?
#Tariffs #U.S. Treasury #Customs duties #Trade deficit #Import revenue #Supply chain #China trade war
📌 Key Takeaways
- U.S. Treasury data indicates a potential decline in federal revenue generated from customs duties and tariffs.
- The trend suggests that importers are successfully diversifying supply chains away from China to avoid high Section 301 duties.
- A cooling of domestic demand for imported durable goods is contributing to the reduction in trade-related tax receipts.
- The drop in revenue presents a challenge for federal budget planners amidst an already widening national deficit.
📖 Full Retelling
🐦 Character Reactions (Tweets)
Economic SatiristU.S. tariffs declining? Guess even China's 'unfair trade practices' can't keep up with American consumer spending on avocado toast and Peloton subscriptions. #TradeWarsLost
Policy PunditBiden's tariffs: The gift that keeps on giving... until it doesn't. Looks like the U.S. economy is finally realizing that trade wars are a bit like a bad breakup—expensive and not worth it. #EconomicBreakup
Global Trade GuruU.S. tariffs declining? More like U.S. importers saying 'bye, felicia' to China and 'hola' to Vietnam. #SupplyChainShuffle
Fiscal FuturistU.S. tariffs on the decline? Guess the only thing worse than a trade deficit is a tariff deficit. #FiscalFiasco
💬 Character Dialogue
🏷️ Themes
Economics, Trade Policy, Fiscal Revenue
📚 Related People & Topics
Supply chain
System involved in supplying a product or service to a consumer
A supply chain is a complex logistics system that consists of facilities that convert raw materials into finished products and distribute them to end consumers or end customers, while supply chain management focuses on the optimization of the flow of goods within the supply chain's distribution chan...
Tariff
Goods import or export tax
A tariff or import tax is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer. Exceptionally, an export tax may be levied on exports of goods or raw materials and is paid by the exporter. Besides being a source of revenue...
Balance of trade
Difference between the monetary value of exports and imports
Balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports of goods over a certain time period. Sometimes, trade in services is also included in the balance of trade but the official IMF definition only considers goods. The balance of trade measures a flow variab...
🔗 Entity Intersection Graph
Connections for Supply chain:
- 🌐 Artificial intelligence (3 shared articles)
- 🏢 Airbus (2 shared articles)
- 🌐 Logistics (2 shared articles)
- 🌐 Mergers and acquisitions (1 shared articles)
- 🏢 GXO Logistics (1 shared articles)
- 👤 Guillaume Faury (1 shared articles)
- 🏢 Aerospace manufacturer (1 shared articles)
- 🏢 International Air Transport Association (1 shared articles)
- 👤 Singapore Airshow (1 shared articles)
- 🏢 Boeing (1 shared articles)
- 🌐 SEC filing (1 shared articles)
- 🌐 UPS (1 shared articles)
📄 Original Source Content
try{ var _=i o; . if(!_||_&&typeof _==="object"&&_.expiry As Claude disrupts stock market, Anthropic researcher warns ’world is in peril’ Gold, silver prices rise amid U.S.-Iran tensions, blowout January payrolls data Dow halts three-day win streak as blowout jobs data curbs rate cut bets Citi pushes back Fed rate cuts to May after blowout January jobs report (South Africa Philippines Nigeria) Is U.S. tariff revenue starting to decline? Author Vahid Karaahmetovic Economy Published 02/04/2026, 09:44 AM Updated 02/08/2026, 05:00 AM Is U.S. tariff revenue starting to decline? 17 US500 -0.01% US10YT=X 0.12% Investing.com -- U.S. tariff revenue has fallen over the past few months, prompting questions about whether import demand is finally adjusting to higher trade barriers. Dive deeper into the impact of tariffs on the economy with InvestingPro Since October, customs duties collected by the Treasury have dropped by roughly 11%, based on both monthly Treasury data and daily deposit figures from the Department of Homeland Security, which closely track the official numbers. At the peak in October, the U.S. was collecting about $376 billion in tariff revenue on an annualized basis, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said in a note. By the end of January, that pace had slowed to roughly $335 billion. However, Kapteyn cautioned against reading the decline as a clear signal of weakening trade activity. Seasonal patterns are likely playing an important role, the economist points out. Imports in December and January tend to be lower, as retailers typically complete most holiday inventory restocking earlier in the year. To adjust for this, Kapteyn looked at duties as a share of estimated imports — an effective tariff rate — which shows a far less pronounced decline than the headline revenue numbers. Recent U.S. trade data have also been volatile rather than pointing to a sustained slowdown, with sharp swings in the trade deficit as import volumes rebounded in some months, particularly in...