Kalshi voided bets on Khamenei's ouster, paying only at pre-death prices
The company refunded fees and reimbursed users who purchased shares after Khamenei's death
Users criticize unclear rules and claim Kalshi is trying to avoid full payouts
Kalshi cites US regulations against markets directly tied to death
📖 Full Retelling
Kalshi, a US-based prediction market platform, voided some bets on Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's ouster in March 2026, paying out positions only at the last trading price before his death, as CEO Tarek Mansour explained that the company doesn't list markets directly tied to death and its rules are designed to prevent profiting from death. In addition to voiding the bets, Kalshi refunded all fees related to the market and reimbursed anyone who purchased shares after Khamenei's death. The decision has sparked controversy among users who claim that either Kalshi's rules should have been communicated more clearly or that its markets should have been more narrowly worded to avoid confusion, with some accusing the platform of trying to have it both ways by allowing bets on Khamenei being out of power while refusing to pay out in full to potentially boost their bottom line. Mansour defended the company's position, stating that while having a market on Khamenei was important, 'having a market directly settling on someone's death' was not permitted under US regulations, highlighting a potential divergence from competitor Polymarket, which has not altered payouts on its similar market, though neither company has responded to requests for clarification regarding their differing approaches to such sensitive prediction markets.
🏷️ Themes
Prediction Markets, Ethics of Betting, Regulatory Compliance, International Politics
Ali Hosseini Khamenei (born 19 April 1939) is an Iranian cleric and politician who has served as the second supreme leader of Iran since 1989. He previously served as the third president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. His tenure as supreme leader, spanning 36 years, makes him the longest-serving head of...
Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in July 2021, the platform is used primarily for traditional sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of the activity on the site and 89% of the site's revenue in 2025.
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives (gambling on real world events). They are exchange-traded markets established for...
Tech News Policy Kalshi voids some bets on Khamenei’s ouster because it’s ‘directly tied to death’ Users say rules barring ‘profiting from death’ are unclear. Users say rules barring ‘profiting from death’ are unclear. by Terrence O'Brien Mar 1, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC Image: The Verge Part Of Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi see all updates Terrence O'Brien is the Verge’s weekend editor. He has over 18 years of experience, including 10 years as managing editor at Engadget. In a statement on X, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said his company would pay out positions on “ Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader? ” at the last trading price before his death . Mansour said that Kalshi doesn’t “list markets directly tied to death” and that its rules are designed to “prevent people from profiting from death.” In addition, Kalshi is refunding fees related to the market and reimbursing anyone who purchased shares after Khamenei’s death. Some users have voiced anger at how the situation was handled, claiming that either Kalshi’s rules should have been communicated more clearly , or that its markets should have been more narrowly worded to avoid confusion. (“ Will Khamenei resign? ” for example.) Some are accusing Kalshi of trying to have it both ways by allowing users to bet on Khamenei being out of power, which they believe was never going to happen without his death, but refusing to pay out people’s bets in full to boost their bottom line . While Mansour defended that having a market on Khamenei was important, he said that “having a market directly settling on someone’s death” was not allowed under US regulations. Unlike Polymarket , Kalshi does not appear to have allowed a market for betting on when or if the US would launch another military strike on Iran . Polymarket does not appear to have altered payouts on its own similar market, “ Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? ” However, it’s unclear if this bet was av...
