Oil, gas seen rising as Hormuz risks mount after U.S., Israel-Iran strikes

Escalating military action between the U.S., Israel and Iran is expected to push oil and gas prices higher, with analysts highlighting growing risks to shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to reports published on March 1, 2026. HSBC emphasized that oil market risk has become 'asymmetrical,' with Hormuz transit emerging as the 'main concern,' noting that while spare capacity in the Middle East Gulf remains significant, it would be inaccessible if the strait were closed due to conflict. The British banking giant maintained its 2026 Brent crude forecast at $65 per barrel but stressed that market impact would largely depend on the duration and potential regional spillover of the ongoing hostilities. Separately, UBS projected that crude oil prices would increase across the entire futures curve, with the most substantial gains expected at the front end of the market, highlighting that approximately 20% of global oil supply flows through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. The Swiss bank further warned that infrastructure damage in the region could potentially disrupt roughly 3.3 million barrels per day of Iranian oil production, while also anticipating upward movement in global natural gas benchmarks including JKM, TTF and Henry Hub due to potential threats to Qatar's 77 million tonnes per annum LNG exports and the oil-linked pricing structure prevalent in Middle Eastern LNG contracts. Beyond commodities, both financial institutions noted potential equity market impacts, with UBS predicting positive stock reactions for U.S. exploration and production companies, particularly more leveraged oil names, and highlighting Canadian majors such as CNQ and CVE as well-positioned to benefit from higher crude prices. HSBC additionally forecast that the U.S. dollar would likely gain strength in the near term amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with both banks emphasizing that ultimate market outcomes would hinge on whether the conflict leads to sustained disruptions in Hormuz shipping—a critical artery for global energy flows.