Pakistan central bank seen holding rates steady as the oil rally clouds inflation outlook: Reuters Poll

try{ var _=i o; . if(!_||_&&typeof _==="object"&&_.expiry Iran conflict latest: Hegseth says Iran conflict has "only just begun" Gold hands back gains as US dollar rebounds; Middle East war continues Morgan Stanley explains why gold is falling despite Iran escalation Nasdaq ends more than 1% higher as solid economic data lifts spirits (South Africa Philippines Nigeria) Pakistan central bank seen holding rates steady as the oil rally clouds inflation outlook: Reuters Poll By Economy Published 03/05/2026, 03:14 AM Updated 03/05/2026, 03:18 AM Pakistan central bank seen holding rates steady as the oil rally clouds inflation outlook: Reuters Poll 0 CL 3.59% By Ariba Shahid KARACHI, March 5 - Pakistan’s central bank is expected to hold its key policy rate steady at a policy review on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as rising global energy prices and regional tensions cloud the inflation outlook and limit the room for cuts. All 10 analysts in a Reuters poll expect the State Bank of Pakistan to hold the rate at 10.5%, after policymakers held the rate in January. The central bank has cut the key rate by a cumulative 11.5 percentage points since mid-2024, from a record high of 22%. Escalating Middle East tensions after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran have raised the risk of disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil-and-gas prices higher, adding to Pakistan’s import bill and inflationary pressures. Analysts expect inflation to average 6%–8% in coming months but warned higher oil prices could push it up further. "Energy prices should dictate the policy rate trajectory. Inflation could average around 7% during the second half of FY26," AKD Securities analyst Muhammad Aliv said. Pakistan’s heavy reliance on imported fuel leaves it vulnerable to global price shocks. "Higher oil prices widen the trade deficit and pressure the rupee," Waqas Ghani, head of research at JS Capital said. Ghani said every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices adds about 0.5 p...