Researchers predict slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this season
#hurricane season forecast#Colorado State University#Atlantic basin#La Niña#named storms#Phil Klotzbach#sea surface temperatures
📌 Key Takeaways
CSU researchers predict 13 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a figure below the 30-year average.
The forecast anticipates six hurricanes, with two reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3+).
The primary reasons for the below-average prediction are the expected onset of La Niña and cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
The team stresses that preparation is critical regardless of the seasonal forecast, as landfalling storms cause the most damage.
📖 Full Retelling
Researchers from Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science forecast a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms in their initial outlook released in early April 2024, citing the likely development of La Niña conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic as key mitigating factors. The team, led by senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, presented these predictions as part of their renowned seasonal forecast, which has been issued for over four decades.
The forecast specifies that of the 13 predicted named storms, six are expected to become hurricanes, and two of those are anticipated to reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). This projection falls below the 30-year climatological average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes per season. The primary reason for the tempered outlook is the anticipated transition from the current El Niño pattern to a La Niña pattern during the peak months of the season. While El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear, La Niña does the opposite, but its potential influence this year is being counterbalanced by other factors.
A significant countervailing element is the presence of anomalously cool sea surface temperatures in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which provide less fuel for storm development. The researchers emphasized that their forecast is probabilistic and carries a degree of uncertainty, noting that even a season with fewer storms can be devastating if a single hurricane makes landfall in a populated area. They advised coastal residents from the Gulf of Mexico to the Eastern Seaboard to prepare thoroughly for the upcoming season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, regardless of the overall numbers.
Colorado State University (Colorado State or CSU) is a public land-grant research university in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States. It is the flagship university of the Colorado State University System. It was founded in 1870 as Colorado Agricultural College and assumed its current name in 1957.
The Atlantic Ocean is the second largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, with an area of about 85,133,000 km2 (32,870,000 sq mi). It covers approximately 17% of Earth's surface and about 24% of its water surface area. During the Age of Discovery, it was known for separating the New World of t...
This Atlantic hurricane season might be less busy than what's typical. Researchers with Colorado State University are estimating 13 named storms in the Atlantic basin this year.
