Three-way race between Labour, Greens, and Reform with polls showing a tight contest
Labour fears a Green victory more than a Reform win due to concerns about left-wing vote splitting
Starmer's strategy is warning that a vote for Greens risks letting Reform win
A Labour defeat could weaken Starmer despite recent leadership survival
The Greens see themselves as best positioned to defeat Farage and tap into urban discontent
📖 Full Retelling
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has deployed his MPs and activists to south-east Manchester on Thursday, February 26, 2026, in a desperate attempt to energize jaded Labour supporters and prevent a potentially disastrous loss in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where the Greens and Reform UK are threatening to split the left vote and hand victory to Nigel Farage's party. The bitter three-way contest is freighted with political risk for Starmer and could go down to the wire, with recent polling showing Labour and Greens tied at 28 points, with Reform UK just behind on 27. Starmer issued an eve-of-poll rallying call, insisting that only his party can stop Reform from importing the politics of 'anger and division' into a city that has been a Labour stronghold for nearly a century. While a Reform victory would be a significant blow to Starmer, it is the prospect of a Green victory that causes the greatest concern in the prime minister's circles, as it would signal that the left vote is fracturing and potentially leaving scores of Labour seats vulnerable at the next election. Starmer's pitch in Gorton and Denton centers on warning that a vote for the Green Party is wasted and will inadvertently let in Reform, but the Greens counter that they are the best positioned to tap into urban angst and represent the most potent vehicle for beating Farage. The party's recent success at the last general election, where they won 6.7% of the national vote and four seats while coming second in 40 constituencies (mostly to Labour), has emboldened their campaign. A Labour defeat in this seat, which they won with a majority of over 13,000 in 2024, would not likely trigger another leadership challenge following Starmer's survival of what appeared to be a potential coup earlier this month, but it would undoubtedly weaken his position and fuel mutinous feelings within the party ahead of much larger midterm elections across the UK on May 7.
🏷️ Themes
By-election politics, Party fragmentation, Leadership challenges, Electoral strategy
Right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom
Reform UK, often known simply as Reform, is a right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. It has eight members of Parliament in the House of Commons, two members of the London Assembly, one member of the Senedd, one member of the Scottish Parliament, one police and crime commissioner,...
Nigel Paul Farage (born 3 April 1964) is a British politician who has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Clacton and Leader of Reform UK since 2024, having previously been its leader from 2019 to 2021. He was the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and 2010 to 2016. Fara...
Labour Party or Labor Party is a name used by many political parties. These political parties are generally left-wing or centre-left, usually with nominal commitments to social democracy and/or democratic socialism.
# Sir Keir Starmer
**Sir Keir Rodney Starmer** (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and lawyer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since July 2024. A member of the Labour Party, he has served as Leader of the Labour Party since 2020 and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) ...
Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on x (opens in a new window) Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on facebook (opens in a new window) Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on linkedin (opens in a new window) Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on x (opens in a new window) Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on facebook (opens in a new window) Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on linkedin (opens in a new window) Starmer faces high-stakes battle as Greens and Reform vie for Manchester seat on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save George Parker and Jim Pickard in London and Jennifer Williams in Manchester Published February 26 2026 Jump to comments section Print this page Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter. Sir Keir Starmer has urged his MPs and activists to flood the streets of south-east Manchester on Thursday, as he seeks to persuade jaded Labour supporters to stick with the party and avert a disastrous loss in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The bitter three-way contest is freighted with political risk for Starmer and could go down to the wire. This week an Opinium poll put Labour and Greens tied on 28 points, with Reform UK just behind on 27. Starmer issued an eve-of-poll rallying call, insisting that only his party can stop Nigel Farage’s Reform from importing the politics of “anger and division” into a city which has for nearly a century been a Labour stronghold. While a Reform victory would be a big blow to Starmer, it is the prospect of a Green victory that causes the greatest fear in the prime minister...
