The US-Israeli war on Iran could rewrite Gulf security calculations

The United States-Israeli war on Iran, which began recently, is already significantly impacting the Middle East, particularly the Gulf region. The conflict involves a US-Israeli bombardment of Iran, resulting in casualties among high-ranking Iranian officials and Iranian retaliation against Israel and countries in the region including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. These countries experienced strikes on various sites such as military bases, airports, ports, and commercial areas, despite not initiating attacks on Iran. A prolonged conflict has the potential to reshape Gulf security calculations by disrupting the existing model of regional stability and economic prosperity. This model has relied on US security guarantees, containment of Iranian rivalry, and GCC coordination. A sustained war will strain these assumptions, prompting Gulf states to reconsider their defense planning and regional strategies. Recent diplomatic shifts towards hedging and dialogue, such as the Saudi-Iran thaw, UAE-Iran channels, Oman's mediation, and Qatar's diplomacy, will be challenged. The conflict could also trigger economic shockwaves due to disruptions at maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to higher energy prices, increased insurance costs, and reduced investor confidence. Furthermore, it poses a longer-term strategic risk as major consumers may diversify away from Gulf energy resources. Within the GCC, the war could either unify or expose divisions among member states with differing threat perceptions and risk tolerances. Geopolitical realignments are also likely, with China and Russia potentially expanding their influence. Gulf states might seek conditional alignment with the US while diversifying their economic and diplomatic options. The conflict may force trade-offs between security imperatives and development ambitions, diplomatic flexibility and alliance discipline. The Gulf is at a crossroads, potentially becoming a frontline in a great power confrontation or leveraging diplomacy for de-escalation.