Trump's Iran ultimatum and signals of a possible deal keep investors on tenterhooks
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Investors head into what could be the most consequential week of the Iran conflict, scrambling to position for binary outcomes: an imminent deal or further escalation.
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In this article US10Y .SPX Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak in the Cross Hall of the White House on April 1, 2026 in Washington, DC. Alex Brandon-Pool | Getty Images News Investors are caught between positioning for a swift deal that ends the war and a significant escalation that could send oil prices and bond yields soaring further as they start a holiday-thinned trading week. President Donald Trump issued a profanity-laden ultimatum on Sunday , warning Iran it would be "living in Hell" if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened by Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, declaring it "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one." Separately, in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Trump said he was hopeful that there was a "good chance" for a deal to be reached by Monday. Conflicting signals have set up a week in which investors are forced to position for starkly divergent outcomes. Meanwhile, Iran has rejected Trump's latest threats , saying that the critical waterway would only reopen fully after Tehran is compensated for the damage from the war, as it continued strikes across the Gulf over the weekend, including Kuwait's oil headquarters. "Markets are on edge, as time is running out and the outcomes are binary — truce or escalation," said Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research at Nomura. Trump's tone nonetheless suggested a degree of urgency in the White House to bring the war to an end, Subbaraman said, as investors continued their positioning to "hedge the escalation risk." Trump has been vacillating between hailing talks with Iran as productive with a peace deal imminent, and warning that he's prepared to intensify military action against the Islamic Republic. He has repeatedly extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Mixed messaging has led to market volatility accompanied by choppy oil trading. The S&P 500 gained 3.4% last week, logging its best weekly gains since November as inves...
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