U.S. crude oil set to top $70 a barrel when trading begins on fears of Iran supply disruption
#Iran oil crisis #Strait of Hormuz #Oil price spike #Ayatollah Khamenei #US crude oil #Supply disruption #Energy markets #Trump Iran talks
๐ Key Takeaways
- US crude oil expected to exceed $70/barrel as trading opens Sunday evening
- Killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei creates governance uncertainty
- Market fears center on potential disruption through Strait of Hormuz, handling 14 million barrels daily
- Analysts predict prices could spike $20 or more depending on conflict escalation
- Trump indicates willingness to talk with Iran, suggesting potential de-escalation
๐ Full Retelling
US crude oil prices are expected to exceed $70 per barrel when trading begins Sunday evening, February 25, 2026, as market participants fear that the massive wave of airstrikes by the US and Israel against Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders, could spiral into a war causing major oil supply disruptions. Kalshi prediction markets indicate a 79% likelihood that US crude oil will reach at least $73 per barrel or more. US crude closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday, having already surged 17% this year in anticipation of potential conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed Friday at $73.21 per barrel, up 20% year-to-date. Energy futures begin trading at 6:00 p.m. ET. It remains unclear who is now governing Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, following the death of Khamenei. The market's ultimate reaction will depend heavily on whether the conflict leads to prolonged disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Tanker traffic through the strait has already effectively halted as shipping companies implement precautionary measures. Consulting firm Rystad Energy forecasts that global benchmark Brent crude could spike by $20 when trading opens. Analyst Matt Smith from Kpler noted that while tankers are building up near the Strait, nothing is currently passing through as shipping companies remain spooked. Approximately 14 million barrels per day passed through the Strait on average in 2025, representing about a third of the world's seaborne crude exports, with three-quarters going to China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated that Iran wants to talk and has agreed to do so, suggesting a potential path to de-escalation that could avoid prolonged supply disruptions.
๐ท๏ธ Themes
Geopolitical Conflict, Oil Market Volatility, Supply Chain Disruption, Diplomatic Response
๐ Related People & Topics
Ali Khamenei
Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989
Ali Hosseini Khamenei (born 19 April 1939) is an Iranian cleric and politician who has served as the second supreme leader of Iran since 1989. He previously served as the third president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. His tenure as supreme leader, spanning 36 years, makes him the longest-serving head of...
Strait of Hormuz
Strait between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf
The Strait of Hormuz ( Persian: ุชฺูฏูู ููุฑู ูุฒ Tangeh-ye Hormoz , Arabic: ู ูุถูู ููุฑู ูุฒ Maแธฤซq Hurmuz) is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points. ...
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Iran
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Donald Trump
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Original Source
In this article USO Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT A cargo ship is pictured off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. Giuseppe Cacace | Afp | Getty Images Crude oil prices are expected to jump when trading opens Sunday evening, as market participants fear war between the U.S. and Iran will spiral out of control and lead to a major supply disruption. The massive wave of airstrikes launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders in the Islamic Republic. See the latest developments here . Kalshi prediction markets currently see a 79% likelihood that U.S. crude oil hits at least $73 per barrel or more. U.S. crude closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday, having run up 17% so far this year in anticipation of a possible Iran attack. Energy futures begin trading at 6:00 p.m. ET. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, could see even bigger gains. Brent futures closed Friday at $73.21 a barrel on Friday, up 20% so far this year. It is unclear who is now governing the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC. How the oil market ultimately reacts will depend on whether the war leads to a prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the most important chokepoint in the world for the global oil trade. Crude oil futures, YTD President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran wants to talk and he has agreed to do so, leaving open the possibility that there might be a path to de-escalation that avoids a big, prolonged disruption. "They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them," Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday. The president told CNBC that U.S. military operations in Iran are "ahead of schedule." But tanker traffic through the Strait has already effectively come to a halt as shipping companies take precautionary measures, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futur...
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