US gasoline prices to rise after attack on Iran, analysts warn

US analysts warned on March 1, 2026, that average retail gasoline prices in the United States are set to break above $3 a gallon on Monday as the conflict between the United States and major oil producer Iran interrupts global oil flows, following US and Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Iran to close the critical Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world's oil is transported. This price surge represents a significant political risk for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party leading into November's midterm elections, as price inflation remains a key concern for voters. Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for lowering gasoline prices since returning to office last year, though many of these assertions have been misleading. According to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at retail price tracker GasBuddy, average pump prices could surpass $3 per gallon for the first time this year, with prices last breaking above $3 nationwide in November 2025 and dropping as low as $2.85 a gallon in February. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint in the Middle East, has already disrupted global oil markets with at least three tankers damaged in the region and major shippers announcing they will avoid the strait. Global benchmark Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, with some analysts predicting it could reach $100 as the Middle East plunges into a new conflict. The White House appears willing to accept the political risks from higher oil prices to pursue its foreign policy objectives, though they may consider releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent prices from escalating further. This potential move would reverse a decision by former President Joe Biden, who authorized a historic drawdown of the SPR in 2022, a move that Trump and other Republicans had sharply criticized. The rising gasoline prices were already expected to increase due to seasonal factors, as refiners began producing more expensive summer-grade fuel mandated by environmental regulations and demand typically peaks during the summer vacation season. Tom Kloza, senior adviser for fuel supplier Gulf, noted that prices were already projected to reach $3.10-$3.25 per gallon with a peaceful Persian Gulf, but the recent conflict has accelerated this timeline. He explained that a $5 per barrel increase for crude should result in about 12 cents more per gallon for gasoline and diesel, though some suppliers had already pushed wholesale prices up by as much as 25 cents per gallon. Despite the current price surge, U.S. gasoline stocks stood at 254.8 million barrels as of February 20, near pandemic-era highs and representing 30 days' supply, which could provide some buffer against market disruptions.