Wagers draw scrutiny after Iran strikes: "Insider trading," senator says
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Lawmakers are raising concerns that prediction market users are engaging in insider trading to wager on U.S. military actions.
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MoneyWatch Prediction markets draw scrutiny over Iran bets: "Insider trading in broad daylight," senator says By Mary Cunningham Mary Cunningham Reporter, MoneyWatch Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. She previously worked at "60 Minutes," CBSNews.com and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program. Read Full Bio Mary Cunningham Updated on: March 2, 2026 / 4:46 PM EST / CBS News Add CBS News on Google Wagers on popular prediction markets tied to the fate of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the timing of U.S. military strikes in the country are drawing scrutiny over possible insider trading and the ethics of betting on death. Users of Kalshi and Polymarket have flocked to the platforms in recent weeks to wager millions on potential actions involving Iran. For instance, one Polymarket contract from January drew $4 million in bets on whether the U.S. or Israel would strike Iran first. Wagers about Iran have translated to windfalls for some users. One trader, under the account name " Magamyman ," made nearly $600,000 on the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to data from Polymarket. The timing of these bets is prompting some lawmakers to question whether the wagers were made based on inside information, with Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, vowing to introduce legislation to curb such practices. At the same time, ethical concerns are growing over allowing users to speculate on certain issues. President Trump announced that Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israel-led strikes on Saturday. Iranian officials confirmed his death later that day. "It's insane this is legal" Concerns over possible insider trading surfaced after Polymarket users placed bets on the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran. Traders wagered over half a million dollars on the platform's contract entitled "US strikes Iran by...?". Scrutiny escalated after Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, posted on X that "six suspected insider...
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