Which Films Would’ve Won the Best Casting Oscar? 90-Plus Pros Voted. The Winners Are…
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A new survey of Casting Society members reveals which Academy Awards contenders prevailed over the past 15 years — if the category had existed.
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Exclusive Poll Which Films Would’ve Won the Best Casting Oscar? 90-Plus Pros Voted. The Winners Are… A new survey of Casting Society members reveals which Academy Awards contenders prevailed over the past 15 years — if the category had existed. By Ben Zauzmer Plus Icon Ben Zauzmer Ben Zauzmer is a contributing writer for The Hollywood Reporter and the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood. @BensOscarMath Follow Sign Up View All March 10, 2026 Share on Facebook Share on X Google Preferred Share to Flipboard Send an Email Show additional share options Share on Reddit Post a Comment Share on Whats App Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Print the Article Share on Tumblr For all the talk about how much the Academy Awards have changed in recent years, one key facet has remained remarkably constant: the category lineup. Aside from the two sound categories merging, there have been no changes to the list of Oscar categories since best animated feature was introduced in 2001. This year, that changes. Casting directors are finally getting their due. This poses a rather unique challenge for forecasters. This is my 15th year predicting the Academy Awards using only math , so what’s an Oscar prognosticator to do when the historical data simply doesn’t exist? Training data is the meal that feeds the model! I decided to try and build up that data. To do so, I decided to turn to the experts: the casting directors themselves. I reached out to the Casting Society, and to my deep gratitude, they were happy to help. They allowed me to poll their membership, and 92 casting directors took time out of their days to respond. For each year from 2010-2025, I provided a shortlist of the 15 films I judged to be most likely to have received Oscar nominations for best casting in each year. Each of the voters ranked their top five from each awards season. I then applied the Academy’s voting procedures: ranked-choice to determine the nominations list, single-vote ...
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