Why I’m Predicting Ryan Coogler Will Win the Best Director Oscar: If 16 Nominations for ‘Sinners’ Aren’t Enough, What Will Be?

Mar 11, 2026 10:00am PT Why I’m Predicting Ryan Coogler Will Win the Best Director Oscar: If 16 Nominations for ‘Sinners’ Aren’t Enough, What Will Be? By Clayton Davis Plus Icon Clayton Davis Senior Awards Editor byClaytonDavis Latest Oscar Performers Announced: Huntr/x and Buddy Guy to Perform ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ and ‘Sinners’ Musical Tributes 1 day ago BFI and British Consulate-General Toast Oscar Weekend as U.K. Scores 40 Nominations 2 days ago ‘You Have to Kill Every Single Time’: Jessica Alba, Keyla Monterroso Mejia and Tatti Ribeiro on the Indie Film ‘Valentina’ and Latina Storytelling 2 days ago See All The numbers say Paul Thomas Anderson. History says it’s time for Ryan Coogler . That tension that exists between what the statistical evidence suggests and what nearly a century of omission demands defines this year’s best director race. It’s a reality the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences cannot sidestep, not at this moment and not with this film. For nearly 100 years, the Academy has handed out the Oscar for best director without ever awarding it to a Black filmmaker. Now comes “ Sinners ,” the most nominated film in Oscar history, with 16 nominations. If Coogler were to lose Sunday night, the question would inevitably follow: what does that say about an institution approaching its centennial? Related Stories 'KPop Demon Hunters' Songwriters the Black Label on 'Golden's' Success and the Lyrics That Bring Them Pride