Exclusive-Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by IRCG elements if killed, sources say
#CIA assessment #Iran attacks #Khamenei succession #IRGC #Trump administration #Nuclear negotiations #Military strikes #Regime change
📌 Key Takeaways
- CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by IRGC elements if killed in attacks
- U.S. and Israel conducted military strikes after failed nuclear negotiations
- Trump signaled interest in regime change but didn't detail succession plans
- U.S. attempted nuclear diplomacy to avoid military intervention
📖 Full Retelling
In the days leading up to the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran on Saturday, February 27, 2026, the Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to sources briefed on the intelligence, as Washington pursued its pronounced objective of regime change in the Islamic Republic following deadly Iranian protests in December. The assessments, produced over the two weeks prior to the attacks, examined various scenarios that could unfold in Iran following potential U.S. intervention, according to two sources familiar with the intelligence who spoke on condition of anonymity. The IRGC, an elite military force established to protect Iran's Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule, would likely take control in the event of Khamenei's death, the CIA determined, though the reports did not present any scenario with certainty. The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment on the matter, maintaining standard protocol regarding classified intelligence assessments. President Donald Trump had been signaling for weeks that the U.S. was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, though he had not publicly detailed Washington's thinking on potential successors to lead the country. In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a 'terrorist regime' and encouraged the Iranian people to overthrow their government, claiming the U.S. military strikes would create an opportunity for such an uprising. The coordinated assault by the U.S. and Israel came after extensive deliberation within the U.S. government about whether to strike Iran, particularly following the deadly protests that erupted in Iran in December.
🏷️ Themes
Intelligence Assessment, Military Intervention, Diplomatic Relations, Regime Change
📚 Related People & Topics
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Military organization in Iran
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), also known as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, is a multi-service primary branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. It was officially established by Ruhollah Khomeini as a military branch in May 1979 in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution. Whereas the Ira...
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try{ var _=i o; . if(!_||_&&typeof _==="object"&&_.expiry U.S., Israel strike Iran as Trump confirms ‘major combat operations’ Strategists see only temporary market impact from Iran strikes U.S., Israel strike Iran — what is known so far Berkshire’s operating profit slides nearly 30% on insurance underwriting (South Africa Philippines Nigeria) Exclusive-Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by IRCG elements if killed, sources say By Reuters World Published 02/28/2026, 10:57 AM Updated 02/28/2026, 11:00 AM Exclusive-Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by IRCG elements if killed, sources say 0 By Erin Banco WASHINGTON, Feb 28 - In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps , two sources briefed on the intelligence said. The assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a U.S. intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic -- now a pronounced objective for Washington. The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi’ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran. The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment. President Donald Trump has for weeks signaled the U.S. was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, but has not given in any detail Washington’s thinking on who could lead the country. In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a "terrorist regime" and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying the U.S. military strikes would s...
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