French nuclear weapons revamp upsets Russia's calculus

French nuclear weapons revamp upsets Russia's calculus by Martin Fornusek March 5, 2026 5:51 PM 7 min read France’s President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech in front of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Le Téméraire (S617) during a visit to the Île Longue naval base in Crozon, France, on March 2, 2026. (Yoan Valat / Pool / AFP via Getty Images) Europe by Martin Fornusek Caught between bellicose Russia and an unsteady U.S., Paris is expanding its nuclear arsenal and moving to strengthen European deterrence. The EU's only nuclear power announced on March 2 that it would increase the number of its warheads from roughly 290 to undisclosed levels — the first such move since 1992. France is also signalling its new nuclear "forward deterrence" could extend to European allies, while inviting them to joint nuclear exercises. Francois Heisbourg, a security expert at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, told the Kyiv Independent that "nuclear deterrence has come back into the framework of European security because of Russia." Become a member – go ad‑free Amid the war in Ukraine , Europe confronts its gravest risk of a direct confrontation with Moscow since the Cold War. Analysts say France's decision could force the Kremlin to rethink its strategic calculations toward the continent. Europe's nuclear powers, France and the U.K., "are never going to match Russia in terms of numbers and diversity of the nuclear arsenal," Darya Dolzikova​, a nuclear deterrence and security expert at Royal United Services Institute , told the Kyiv Independent. "But that's not necessarily how deterrence works. Russia just needs to be unsure whether it can count on the French not using their nuclear weapons in defense of European allies." Deterring Moscow Russia's nuclear stockpile includes about 5,500 warheads — the single largest arsenal in the world, with the U.S. being the close second. Become a member – go ad‑free Since the Cold War, European NATO allies have prima...