5 takeaways from the first primaries of the 2026 midterms
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Voters headed to the polls Tuesday in the first primaries of the midterm election season. The latest results from Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas. (Image credit: Brandon Bell)
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Analysis 5 takeaways from the first primaries of the 2026 midterms March 4, 2026 4:23 AM ET Domenico Montanaro A "VOTE" sign is posted near a polling center on Tuesday in Austin, Texas. Texas held their primary elections including two hotly contested races for Democratic and Republican Senate nominations. Brandon Bell/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Brandon Bell/Getty Images The first primaries of the 2026 midterm campaign are in the books. The results in North Carolina and Texas could have big consequences for control of Congress. Not all the results are finalized as yet, but here are some takeaways from what is known: 1. Texas Republicans head for a runoff in the Senate primary. Will Trump get involved? The three-way race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt meant that no one was able to get above 50% of the vote. That means 12 more weeks of the Texas Senate GOP primary — until May 26. This has already been the most expensive Senate primary in history, and another $100 million could be spent on top of the nearly $100 million that was already spent on just the Republican side, mostly to buoy Cornyn. Elections Only a fraction of House seats are competitive. Redistricting is driving that lower Cornyn vs. Paxton is really the old vestiges of the traditional GOP against the new MAGA pugilists. The question is whether President Trump will get involved and put his finger on the scale to pick the candidate he thinks can win. Trump avoided making an endorsement in the lead-up, saying he liked all three candidates, but with the Democratic side decided — state Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett — does Trump change his mind? He may decide that the money that would be spent among the warring Republicans in a likely GOP seat would be better spent on races in swing districts. Loading... 2. Will Democrats finally win in Texas? Texas has been Democrats' white whale, their Lucy and the football — ge...
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