Goldman Sachs lowers second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts

Goldman Sachs, the prominent global investment bank, has revised its oil price forecasts downward for the second quarter of 2026, according to a recent research note issued from its headquarters. The bank now projects that the global benchmark Brent crude will average $75 per barrel during that period, a reduction from its previous estimate of $80. This adjustment is attributed to a combination of factors, including a stronger-than-anticipated supply outlook from non-OPEC+ producers and a more tempered assessment of global demand growth, particularly from key economies like China. The forecast was published in the context of ongoing market volatility and shifting energy transition dynamics. The revision reflects a significant recalibration of the bank's view on the medium-term oil market balance. Analysts cited robust production growth from the United States, Guyana, and Brazil as primary contributors to the increased supply expectations, which are now seen outpacing earlier projections. Concurrently, the demand side of the equation is being reassessed due to persistent economic headwinds, such as higher interest rates and a slower-than-expected post-pandemic recovery in industrial activity across Asia. This supply-demand reassessment suggests a less tight market than previously modeled for the 2026 timeframe. This forecast update from a major market influencer like Goldman Sachs is likely to shape investor sentiment and strategic planning within the energy sector. It underscores a growing consensus among analysts that the era of extreme price spikes may be moderated by structural changes, including efficiency gains and the gradual adoption of electric vehicles. However, the bank also noted that geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policy decisions remain wild cards that could alter this trajectory. The lowered forecast signals a cautious outlook, balancing long-term energy transition trends against near-term market fundamentals.