The 5 Big ‘Known Unknowns’ of Donald Trump’s New War With Iran

US President Donald Trump launched an all-out air assault on Iran on March 1, 2026, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, marking what may be the biggest gamble of his political career. The attack, conducted in coordination with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, represents Trump's continued pattern of high-stakes military gambits, extending back to his 2018 withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). This dramatic escalation comes amid widespread forewarning, with military buildup having been underway for months and Iranian retaliatory strikes against multiple Gulf States including Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan already occurring in response. The death of Khamenei, who had led Iran since 1979, creates profound uncertainty about the trajectory of the conflict and the stability of the region. While the opening salvos of what Trump has dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" may have been anticipated, the ultimate duration and reach of the war remain significant unknowns in a region already fraught with tension. This conflict carries particular historical weight as the US continues to deal with consequences from the last major Iranian upheaval nearly half a century ago when the US-backed shah was ousted in 1979. Already, the operation has claimed American lives, with three US service members reported dead and five injured, contrasting with Trump's previous military operations that had been relatively bloodless for American forces. Trump's decision to engage in this war creates a stark contrast with his 2024 campaign promises to "stop wars" rather than start them, raising questions about his definition of victory in this conflict. His administration appears to be pursuing the amorphous goal of "regime change" with little apparent strategic planning for what comes after the initial strikes. The operation lacks the congressional authorization that typically precedes major military engagements, and Trump's public statements suggest an expectation that Iran's military and security forces might simply abandon their positions and merge with "Iranian Patriots." This approach stands in sharp contrast to the more deliberate planning that accompanied previous major military interventions in the Middle East, leaving the ultimate outcome and potential for wider regional instability highly uncertain.