Iran expert discusses whether the war has made the Iranian regime stronger

Iran expert Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, analyzed in a recent discussion that the ongoing confrontations with the United States and Israel have paradoxically strengthened the Iranian regime's domestic position and regional influence. The assessment, delivered in a public forum, contends that external pressure has consolidated power within the ruling establishment in Tehran, rather than weakening it as Western strategies intended. Nasr's argument centers on the regime's ability to leverage external threats for internal mobilization. He suggests that the 'axis of resistance'—a network of Iran-aligned militias and proxies across the Middle East—has become more active and coordinated, projecting Iranian power while allowing Tehran to maintain plausible deniability. This strategy, according to the analysis, has increased Iran's strategic depth and bargaining power in the region, from Yemen to Lebanon, without triggering a full-scale war that could threaten the regime's survival. Furthermore, the expert posits that international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, intended to cripple the economy and stir public discontent, have instead allowed the state, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to tighten its control over the economy and security apparatus. This consolidation has marginalized moderate factions and empowered hardliners who benefit from a perpetual siege mentality. The discussion implies that the current Western-led strategy of maximum pressure may be counterproductive, failing to achieve its stated goals of moderating Iran's behavior or encouraging political change, while simultaneously entrenching the very forces it seeks to contain. Looking ahead, Nasr's analysis raises critical questions about the future of Western policy toward Iran. If external confrontation continues to bolster the regime's resilience and regional clout, it may necessitate a fundamental reassessment of diplomatic and strategic approaches. The key takeaway is a complex paradox: actions designed to weaken the Islamic Republic have, in several measurable ways, contributed to its fortification.