From byelections to regime change: how gambling on any event fuelled the rise of prediction markets
#prediction markets #gambling #byelections #regime change #speculative investments #digital platforms #information aggregation
📌 Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets allow betting on diverse events like elections and regime changes.
- These markets have grown by expanding beyond traditional sports to include political and social outcomes.
- They function as information aggregation tools, reflecting collective expectations about future events.
- The rise is fueled by increased accessibility through digital platforms and interest in speculative investments.
📖 Full Retelling
<p>What are Polymarket and Kalshi? What are the odds on US-style exchanges taking off in the UK? Here’s the lowdown</p><p>As ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones rained down on the Middle East, one of the world’s most talked-about businesses was inviting wagers on whether nuclear Armageddon might be imminent.</p><p>Polymarket is a prediction market, a relatively new breed of betting company that has burst on to the scene, particularly in the US, often seducing cus
🏷️ Themes
Prediction Markets, Gambling Expansion
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Explainer From byelections to regime change: how gambling on any event fuelled the rise of prediction markets What are Polymarket and Kalshi? What are the odds on US-style exchanges taking off in the UK? Here’s the lowdown As ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones rained down on the Middle East, one of the world’s most talked-about businesses was inviting wagers on whether nuclear Armageddon might be imminent. Polymarket is a prediction market, a relatively new breed of betting company that has burst on to the scene, particularly in the US, often seducing customers with little previous interest in gambling. Alongside its larger rival Kalshi, Polymarket offers the chance to stake money on everything from the result of last week’s Gorton and Denton byelection to whether the US will confirm the existence of aliens before 2027. Its market on nuclear Armageddon now appears to have been taken down, after widespread distaste circulating online for the prospect of wagering on the deaths of millions of humans. Polymarket did not return a request for comment. For those who like to put their money where their mouth is, it has long been possible to gamble on affairs of state. The 2024 general election betting scandal in the UK opened many people’s eyes to the myriad ways in which bookmakers and punters can do so. However, the rapid growth of prediction markets, particularly in the US, is making such wagers more commonplace. So how do they work and are they likely to take off in the UK? Instead of odds, such as 5-1 or 11-2, probabilities are typically expressed in percentage terms. Many of the bets are also presented as a simple yes/no answer. This makes for a more user-friendly experience in a country where legal sports betting is a relatively new, if fast-growing phenomenon. Prediction markets also tend to deploy the language of financial trading, showing graphs of how individual markets are moving, or inviting customers to “buy” or “sell” an outcome. Why is that important? In...
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