Iran's high-risk war strategy seems to centre on endurance and deterrence
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Tehran's approach appears to rest on a belief it can absorb strikes longer than its adversaries sustain pain and costs, writes BBC Persian's Amir Azimi.
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Iran's high-risk war strategy seems to centre on endurance and deterrence 35 minutes ago Share Save Amir Azimi BBC Persian Share Save Iran's military posture in a widening conflict with Israel and the US suggests it is not fighting for victory in any conventional sense. It is fighting for survival, and survival on its own terms. The Islamic Republic's leaders and commanders have been preparing for this moment for years. They understood that their regional ambitions could eventually trigger a direct confrontation with Israel or the US, and that a war with one would almost certainly draw in the other. That pattern was evident in the 12-day war last summer, when Israel struck first and the US joined days later. In the current round of fighting, they launched strikes on Iran simultaneously. Given the technological superiority, intelligence capabilities and advanced military hardware of the US and Israel, it would be naive to think Iranian strategists were planning for a straightforward battlefield victory. Instead, Iran appears to have built a strategy around deterrence and endurance. It has invested heavily in layered ballistic missile capabilities, long-range drones and a network of allied armed groups across the region over the past decade. It understands its own limitations: US mainland territory is out of reach but American bases across the region - specifically in neighbouring Arab countries - are not. Israel also lies well within range of Iranian missiles and drones, and recent exchanges have demonstrated that its air defence systems can be penetrated. Each projectile that goes through those systems carries not just military but psychological weight. Iran's calculus rests partly on the economics of war. Interceptors used by Israel and the US are much more expensive than many of the one-way drones and missiles deployed by Iran. Prolonged conflict forces the US and Israel to use up high-value assets to intercept comparatively low-cost threats. Energy is another lev...
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