UK grocery inflation in surprise rise as experts warn of worse to come

UK grocery inflation in surprise rise as experts warn of worse to come Extended war in Middle East could cause ‘substantial spike’ in inflation and ‘sharp drop in output’ in eurozone and UK, ECB official says Business live – latest updates Shoppers faced a surprise jump in grocery inflation last month after four successive months of falls, as experts warned there is worse to come if there is prolonged war in the Middle East. In a blow to households struggling with the cost of living , grocery price inflation rose to 4.3% in the four weeks to 22 February, after falling to 4% in January from 4.7% in December , according to the market research company Worldpanel by Numerator. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s chief economist warned prolonged war in the Middle East could lead to lower oil and gas supplies from the region, causing a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” in the eurozone. The crisis has already driven oil and gas sharply higher, threatening to push up prices at the pump for UK drivers and increase household gas and electricity bills. In an interview with the Financial Times , Philip Lane said “directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation, especially in the near term”, and that such a development would be “negative” for growth. This would also apply to the UK. Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “Looking ahead to Easter, shoppers will notice that chocolate prices remain high, up 9.3% year on year. “While this is still a significant rise, the pace of inflation in the category is beginning to ease and is now at its lowest level since September 2025.” However, Greggs said “easing inflationary pressures” should boost stronger consumer spending, as it revealed a near-18% drop in pre-tax profits £167.4m in the year to 27 December. The Worldpanel report showed shoppers splashed out on recent celebrations. Pre-made pancake mixes were up 114% from the previous week in ...